Intel Shares Surge on Political Backing and Technological Milestone

Intel's stock concluded the week with a powerful rally, driven by a combination of political endorsement and significant progress in its manufacturing roadmap. The surge followed a meeting between CEO Lip-Bu Tan and former US President Donald Trump, adding momentum to the chipmaker's ongoing turnaround narrative ahead of its upcoming quarterly earnings report.

The catalyst for the sharp price movement was a post by Donald Trump on Truth Social late Thursday. He described a meeting with Intel's chief executive, calling it a "great deal" for both parties and reiterating his objective to bring leading-edge chip manufacturing back to American soil, explicitly naming Intel in this context.

Trading activity on Friday reflected immediate market enthusiasm:

• The stock price advanced by 10.8% to close at $45.55.
• This marked the most significant single-day gain since September 2025.
• Shares reached a new 52-week high of $45.73 during the session.
• Trading volume exceeded 185 million shares, more than double the average daily volume of approximately 90 million.

This jump accentuated a positive multi-month trend and underscored the market's reaction to perceived political support for Intel's domestic expansion plans.

Government Investment Shows Substantial Paper Profit

The US government's strategic investment in Intel, initiated in August 2025 at roughly $20 per share, has proven highly lucrative. Based on Friday's closing price of $45.55, the value of the federal stake has more than doubled.

Bloomberg data indicates the current market value of the government's holding now exceeds $11 billion. Depending on the final structure of future agreements, the total potential value of the entire support package could reach up to $27.7 billion.

18A Process Ushers in a New Manufacturing Era

The political developments coincided with a week of substantive technological announcements. At CES 2026, Intel unveiled its new Core Ultra Series 3 processors, codenamed "Panther Lake." These are the first consumer chips manufactured on the company's advanced 18A process node, currently the most sophisticated semiconductor fabrication technology in the United States.

The 18A node is a cornerstone of Intel's comeback strategy. Developed at its research facilities in Hillsboro, Oregon, the technology incorporates key innovations:

• RibbonFET gate-all-around transistors
• PowerVia backside power delivery

These advancements are designed to help Intel narrow the competitive gap with industry leader TSMC. The company began shipping 18A products as planned in late 2025, with end-user devices expected to become available from January 27, 2026. Intel states the technology is slated for use in over 200 notebook and vehicle designs from global partners.

Strategic Capital and Key Partnerships

Billion-Dollar Backing Provides a Cushion

Intel's transformation is being bolstered by substantial external investment. On December 26, 2025, Nvidia finalized the purchase of a $5 billion equity stake, acquiring 214.8 million Intel shares at $23.28 each.

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Coupled with the US government's commitment and an earlier $2 billion investment from SoftBank, the total strategic capital secured by Intel amounts to approximately $16 billion. These funds provide significant financial flexibility for manufacturing expansion and technological modernization.

Deepening Collaboration with Nvidia

The partnership with Nvidia extends well beyond a simple financial investment. The two companies have agreed to jointly develop:

• Custom data center CPUs
• PC products based on Intel's x86 architecture

These collaborations will integrate Nvidia's AI and accelerator technologies. This positions Intel not only as a designer of its own chips but also as a manufacturing and technology partner for a pivotal player in the AI sector.

Analyst Sentiment: A Mixed Picture

Upgrade Adds to Positive Momentum

Adding further support, Melius Research upgraded Intel's stock from "Hold" to "Buy" on January 5, 2026, setting a price target of $50.

Analyst Ben Reitzes provided several key points:
* He characterized recent concerns about Nvidia's satisfaction with the 18A process as "outdated information."
* He pointed to the potential for both Nvidia and Apple to evaluate Intel's next-generation 14A manufacturing node for production starting in 2028/2029.
* He highlighted CEO Lip-Bu Tan's strong connections with central industry and political figures, including Trump, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, and AMD CEO Lisa Su.

Consensus View Remains Cautious

Despite individual bullish calls, the overall analyst consensus remains guarded. Among the 36 experts covering the stock, the consensus rating is "Reduce":
* 8 recommend selling.
* 24 recommend holding.
* 4 recommend buying.

The average 12-month price target stands at $35.88, below the current trading price. This reflects skepticism among some analysts about whether the recent rally is fully justified by fundamental improvements.

Financial Outlook and Valuation

Intel is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after the market closes on Thursday, January 22, 2026. The company has provided the following outlook:
* Q4 Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.08 (a decline of 38.5% year-over-year)
* Q4 Revenue: $12.8 to $13.8 billion (midpoint: $13.3 billion)

Operational data from the prior quarter already showed progress. In Q3 2025:
* Operating expenses fell to $4.535 billion (from $11.054 billion in the prior-year period).
* The net result swung from a loss of $16.6 billion to a profit of $4.1 billion (attributable to Intel).

Market optimism is evident in the share price performance: the stock is up 23% year-to-date and has gained 129% over the past twelve months. The price-to-earnings ratio based on trailing profits has risen above 750, signaling that investors are primarily betting on a renaissance of Intel's manufacturing and technology platform rather than its current earnings profile.