Intel Shares Face Crucial Test Ahead of Earnings Report

As Intel approaches the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, a palpable sense of investor anxiety has emerged. Following an extraordinary rally throughout 2025, the stock has recently retreated from its latest peak. Market sentiment is being pulled in opposing directions: analyst upgrades, persistent rumors of a partnership with Apple, and optimism surrounding the foundry business are fueling bullish narratives, while several prominent firms caution against excessive optimism.

In recent trading, Intel's stock moved within a range of $46.77 to $50.21, ultimately settling near $46.98. This represents a decline of approximately 7% from its recent 52-week high of $50.39, a significant intraday swing that underscores heightened uncertainty ahead of the quarterly report scheduled for January 22.

This volatility comes on the heels of a powerful, multi-year advance:

• A gain of 27–31% since the start of 2026
• An increase of 84% for the full year 2025
• A surge of 165% from its 52-week low of $17.67 in April 2025
• Market Capitalization: Approximately $234 billion

Trading volume was elevated at around 127 million shares, consistent with recent averages.

Analyst Revisions Provide Momentum

A key driver behind the stock's prior ascent has been a series of positive revisions from Wall Street research firms. A notable upgrade came from KeyBanc analyst John Vinh, who raised his rating from "Sector Weight" to "Overweight" and established a price target of $60. This stands as one of the most bullish forecasts currently available, implying an upside potential of nearly 28% from recent price levels.

Vinh's optimistic stance is based on several factors:

• Foundry Progress: Reported yield rates exceeding 60% for the new 18A manufacturing process
• Robust Server Demand: Intel is reportedly "nearly sold out" of server processors for 2026
• Pricing Power: Management is considering average price increases of 10–15% due to strong demand

Other institutions have also adjusted their stances ahead of the earnings release:

• Citi: Upgraded from "Sell" to "Neutral," raising the price target from $29 to $50
• Jefferies: Maintained "Hold," increasing the target from $40 to $45
• UBS: Maintained "Neutral," raising the target from $40 to $49
• Barclays: Maintained "Equal Weight," lifting the target from $35 to $45
• Bank of America: Maintained "Underperform" with a $40 price target

This landscape reveals a market dominated by cautious, albeit improving, ratings.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Intel?

Speculation of an Apple Partnership Adds Intrigue

Market chatter has been further energized by unconfirmed reports of a potential manufacturing partnership with Apple. According to speculation, Apple could utilize Intel's upcoming 18A-P technology for chips in future Macs and iPads, with production commencing as early as 2027. Analyst John Vinh characterized such a potential deal as the first "major catch" for Intel's foundry division.

Further rumors suggest Apple might also adopt Intel's 14A technology around 2029 for more cost-effective A-series processors in iPhones. While no contracts have been confirmed, these speculations highlight the strategic importance investors are placing on Intel's foundry initiative.

Fourth Quarter Expectations: Key Metrics to Watch

For Q4 2025, Intel's management has provided the following guidance ranges and targets:

• Revenue: $12.8 to $13.8 billion
• Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 36.5%
• Adjusted EPS: $0.08

Analysts at Bank of America anticipate results meeting or slightly exceeding the company's own forecast, projecting:

• Revenue: $13.4 billion
• Gross Margin: 36.5%

Market experts believe that solid server segment sales may help offset headwinds initially caused by rising memory prices in the PC business.

Cautious Sentiment Persists Despite Price Appreciation

Despite the substantial share price recovery, Wall Street's overall mood remains restrained. Approximately 70% of covering analysts continue to rate the stock as a "Hold," with only 17% recommending a "Buy." The average price target sits at $39.62, notably below the current trading price, signaling that many models view the recent rally as having outpaced fundamental progress.

Jefferies has expressed the view that the full-year outlook could prove "relatively disappointing." Observers also note that the foundry business, despite improved yields, faces significant structural challenges. Manufacturing facilities continue to require substantial capital investment, and competition from TSMC and Samsung remains intense.

The coming weeks will be critical for Intel. The company must demonstrate with its Q4 results, forward guidance, and more concrete signals from its foundry operations that it can justify the elevated expectations already reflected in its share price.