XRP’s ETF Paradox: Record Inflows Amid Steep Price Decline

The launch of exchange-traded funds for XRP has produced a confounding market scenario. While Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced substantial price appreciation following their own ETF approvals, Ripple's digital asset is moving in the opposite direction. Despite unprecedented institutional product launches, XRP's valuation has deteriorated significantly. Blockchain analytics reveal an even more troubling picture: approximately 41.5% of all XRP holders are currently positioned at a loss. What explains this contradictory response to what should have been a bullish catalyst?

Recent data from Glassnode underscores a structural weakness within the XRP ecosystem. Merely 58.5% of the total XRP supply is currently held at a profit, representing the lowest percentage since November 2024 when the token traded around $0.53. This statistic translates to roughly 26.5 billion tokens—more than two-fifths of the circulating supply—sitting in loss positions. This concentration of underwater holdings creates substantial vulnerability, where any additional market weakness could trigger panic selling as distressed investors exit their positions. Compounding the concern, most of these losses accumulated in recent months, with XRP trading approximately 40% below its July peak of $3.65.

Record-Breaking ETF Launch Fails to Ignite Price Rally

Mid-November 2025 witnessed an extraordinary wave of institutional acceptance for XRP. Canary Capital's XRPC ETF recorded $59 million in trading volume on its first day—making it the most successful ETF launch of the entire year. Franklin Templeton's EZRP product followed on November 18, with market experts initially predicting debut volumes potentially reaching $250 million. Contrary to expectations, XRP declined over 13% within a single week following these developments. This paradox becomes even more striking when considering that XRPC inflows have cumulatively reached $270 million while the token's value continues to erode. Market observers suggest the explanation may lie in the products' design—specifically, in-kind mechanisms that obscure genuine demand from public order books.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?

Divergent Whale Activity Reflects Market Uncertainty

Large investors are sending conflicting signals about XRP's prospects. While some major addresses reduced their exposure following recent price peaks, analytics from Nansen reveal a counterintuitive trend: so-called "smart money" entities established long positions worth $44 million within a 24-hour window. This discrepancy between whale divestment and institutional accumulation highlights fundamental uncertainty about XRP's direction. Meanwhile, Ripple's network continues to demonstrate operational strength, processing between 1.5 and 2 million transactions daily. During peak activity, over 2 billion XRP change ownership, indicating consistently high utilization regardless of price movements.

Technical Positioning and Market Headwinds

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP approaches a critical juncture. The support level at $2.15 represents the final defensive line—a breach could open the path toward $1.88. Resistance is consolidating between $2.30 and $2.40, with a sustained breakthrough above this range required to reestablish bullish momentum. Broader market sentiment exacerbates the pressure, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing outflows of $866 million and risk aversion spreading across alternative cryptocurrencies. Even positive developments like Ripple's $500 million funding round from Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group currently appear to have negligible impact on price action.