Walmart Shares Surge to New Peak Amid Divergent Analyst Views

Walmart Inc. demonstrated formidable strength during the pivotal Black Friday sales period, with its stock achieving a record closing high. This performance underscores investor confidence in the retail behemoth as a haven during economic uncertainty. However, a stark valuation debate and operational challenges abroad present a complex picture behind the headline numbers.

The post-Thanksgiving shopping event provided a significant boost, reinforcing Walmart's appeal to cost-conscious consumers navigating a fragmented economic landscape. This sentiment was directly reflected in the equity market, where the company's shares climbed to an unprecedented level. Notably, this rally occurred even as broader indices, including the S&P 500, showed signs of weakness, highlighting Walmart's current market resilience.

A Clash of Valuations

The optimistic market move stands in sharp contrast to a severe warning from research firm Morningstar. The agency has assigned Walmart its lowest possible 1-star rating, asserting the stock is "significantly overvalued." Morningstar's long-term fair value estimate sits at just $60 per share—approximately half of the current trading price. This extreme discrepancy illustrates the deep divide in market assessments. In a counterpoint, forecasts from platforms like CoinCodex project further upside, anticipating the stock could rise above $112 within the next month.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Walmart?

Strategic Pivot and International Headwinds

Concurrently, Walmart is aggressively advancing its strategy to reposition itself as a technology-driven enterprise. Following its partnership with OpenAI, the company is now testing advertising within its AI-powered shopping assistant, "Sparky," exploring it as a novel revenue stream. The planned switch of its stock exchange listing from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to the Nasdaq symbolically reinforces this tech-oriented direction.

However, international operations reveal persistent difficulties. Asda, the former UK subsidiary in which Walmart retains a 10% stake, is grappling with the aftermath of an IT system transition. The British grocer does not anticipate a return to sales growth until mid-2026, serving as a reminder that the company's global business does not run as smoothly as its domestic operations.

The coming weeks, leading through the holiday season and the anticipated exchange transition, will provide an initial test. The core question remains: Can Walmart's technological initiatives justify its premium valuation and meet elevated expectations, or will the skeptics' cautionary stance prove correct?