Wall Street Bullish on Rocket Lab’s Strategic Trajectory

Shares of commercial space company Rocket Lab are experiencing significant volatility, yet this movement coincides with a wave of rising analyst confidence. This apparent contradiction is resolved by examining the firm's concrete operational achievements and a strategic pivot that has captured the attention of major financial institutions.

The fundamental case for optimism is being written by Rocket Lab's own results. For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of $155.1 million, a figure that surpassed expectations and represented a 48% year-over-year increase. A pivotal moment was the securing of a massive $816 million contract with the Space Development Agency, a deal that nearly doubled the firm's order backlog. It is important to note that despite these strong signals, Rocket Lab continues to report net losses. Furthermore, over the preceding 90 days, company insiders executed substantial share sales totaling approximately $272 million. These transactions, however, were largely conducted under pre-established trading plans set up months in advance, a common practice for scheduled liquidity.

A Landmark Analyst Upgrade and Sector Dynamics

In a move that underscores the shifting sentiment, Bank of America has more than doubled its price target for Rocket Lab, raising it from $60 to $120 per share while reiterating its "Buy" rating. This new target stands well above the average analyst consensus of around $73, highlighting a particularly bullish outlook. Analysts cite the anticipated market dynamism from a potential SpaceX IPO as one factor, alongside Rocket Lab's execution.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?

Operational Milestones and Business Diversification

On the operational front, 2025 was a record year for Rocket Lab's Electron rocket, which successfully completed 21 launches. Perhaps of greater long-term importance is the accelerated development of its medium-lift Neutron rocket. The program has passed critical testing milestones, earned a place on the U.S. Space Force's launch vehicle roster, and is targeting its inaugural launch for the first quarter of 2026. Concurrently, the business model is successfully diversifying; the Space Systems division, which produces satellite components, now generates approximately three-quarters of total revenue, creating a more stable foundation alongside launch services.

Rocket Lab equity remains a high-volatility proposition, embodying both the expansive long-term vision of the commercial space sector and the near-term challenges of achieving sustained profitability. Key upcoming catalysts that will test this optimism are the planned maiden launch of the Neutron rocket in early 2026 and the continued execution of its multi-billion-dollar government contracts.