Voestalpine Shares: A Record Contract Meets Market Jitters

Despite announcing the largest single order in its history for warehouse technology, Voestalpine's share price declined last week. This divergence highlights how macroeconomic fears are currently overshadowing strong company-specific news for cyclical industrial stocks.

On January 15, Voestalpine secured a major new contract within its Metal Forming Division. The project involves constructing a fully automated high-bay warehouse system for a modern logistics center in Istanbul, Turkey.

Key Project Details:

• Contract Value: €41 million
• Location: Istanbul, Turkey
• Business Unit: Metal Forming Division – Warehouse Technology
• Scheduled Completion: April 2027

Board member Carola Richter stated that the company is well-positioned in this market segment and is seeing growing demand beyond Europe. This Turkish project is not an isolated win. Voestalpine is also working on other significant warehouse technology contracts, including two 45-meter-high automated storage systems for furniture retailer JYSK's Dutch distribution center and a 30-meter-high automated pallet racking system for a UK retailer.

In the 2024/25 financial year, the Metal Forming Division reported revenue of €3.1 billion and an EBITDA of €169.3 million. The new order adds to an already robust project pipeline.

Share Price Slips Amid Broad Sector Weakness

The stock came under selling pressure on Friday, closing 2.2% lower at €38.76. This drop occurred despite the positive mid-week contract announcement. Trading data for the session showed a high of €39.66, a low of €38.34, and volume of 264,687 shares.

The elevated trading volume suggests some investors opted to take profits following a remarkable twelve-month rally. As recently as January 2025, the shares traded around €17, meaning the price has more than doubled since then. The decline aligns with broader weakness in cyclical industrial stocks. Other Austrian industrial equities, such as Wienerberger, also faced selling pressure, underscoring the impact of widespread economic concerns.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Voestalpine?

Technical and Fundamental Perspectives

The slide below €39 has clouded the short-term technical outlook. Market attention now turns to a key support zone around €38.50, which has been tested multiple times recently.

From a fundamental standpoint, analyst sentiment remains largely positive. Major investment banks have issued price targets significantly above the current trading level:

• Deutsche Bank: Buy, target price €44.00
• J.P. Morgan: Overweight, target price €43.40
• Morgan Stanley: Overweight, target price €40.70
• UBS: Buy, target price €43.00
• Bank of America: Buy, target price €41.00
• Citi: Neutral, target price €40.00
• BNP Paribas Exane: Neutral, target price €38.50

BNP Paribas Exane provides the most conservative view with a neutral rating and a target near the current price. However, the consensus target range clusters between €41 and €44.

Upcoming Quarterly Report in Focus

The next critical milestone is February 11, when Voestalpine releases its results for the third quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year. This report will offer clarity on the resilience of earnings in the current economic climate.

The group has demonstrated strength so far this fiscal year. For the first half of 2025/26, net profit after tax increased by 8.6% to €198.6 million. The full-year EBITDA guidance of €1.40 to €1.55 billion was reaffirmed. Furthermore, net debt stood at €1.47 billion as of the end of September 2025, its lowest level in a decade.

The company thus presents a picture of solid order books, confirmed earnings guidance, and reduced debt. This stands in contrast to a market dominated by recession fears. The upcoming Q3 figures will provide a clearer signal as to which of these opposing forces will prevail in the months ahead.