US Regulators Clear Nvidia for Restricted China Exports

A significant regulatory hurdle has been cleared for Nvidia, providing a boost after a subdued start to the 2026 trading year. US authorities have now granted official approval for the export of the company's high-performance H200 chips to China, albeit under a strict set of conditions. While this move eliminates a major source of geopolitical uncertainty for the chipmaker, market enthusiasm is being tempered by notable insider selling activity.

Beyond the regulatory landscape, Nvidia is aggressively pursuing its technological expansion. At CES 2026, the company identified "Physical AI"—the convergence of artificial intelligence with robotics and physical systems—as its next major growth engine. This strategic direction is being reinforced through new alliances, including a partnership with Lenovo to develop scalable AI cloud factories and a joint multi-billion dollar laboratory with pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly aimed at accelerating drug discovery.

With the regulatory agreement now in place, focus returns to operational execution. A key driver for share performance in the coming months will be Nvidia's ability to stabilize its supply chains to efficiently fulfill the approved quotas for the Chinese market.

Insider Transactions Signal Caution

Despite the positive regulatory development, Nvidia's shares are currently consolidating, trading around $185. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has recorded a modest decline of approximately 1.6%. A primary factor behind this current restraint appears to be recent transactions by company executives and major investors.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?

Over the past 90 days, insiders, including CEO Jensen Huang, have sold approximately 1.76 million shares. Institutional investors have also engaged in profit-taking; Golden State Equity Partners reduced its stake by 1.7% in the third quarter. While such sales are often part of pre-arranged, long-term plans, their collective volume suggests a degree of caution at current price levels.

Framework Ends Period of Uncertainty

The formal export license, confirmed this Wednesday, finally provides clarity for investors. Fears that Nvidia could be completely severed from the Chinese market had weighed on the stock price at the start of the year. The newly established framework permits trade but ties it to stringent conditions designed to protect US national security interests.

Central stipulations include a volume cap: shipments to China must not exceed 50 percent of the quantity sold to US customers. Furthermore, independent auditors must verify the AI capabilities of the chips prior to export, and Chinese buyers are required to demonstrate safeguards against military diversion.