US Export Approval Fuels Nvidia’s Chinese AI Chip Revenue

A significant US regulatory clearance has granted Nvidia permission to resume large-scale shipments of its advanced artificial intelligence processors to China. The authorization, which covers the export of H200 chips, arrives just ahead of the mid-February Chinese New Year holiday, a period that typically slows market activity. This development is projected to contribute substantial incremental revenue, potentially reaching up to $2.16 billion, to the chipmaker's current fiscal quarter.

The approval provides a concrete and timely boost to Nvidia's financial outlook. Shipments of the H200 processors are slated to occur within a tight, six-week window before the Chinese New Year, directly impacting the company's new business quarter that commenced in late January. This influx of orders represents a measurable addition to Nvidia's Q1 revenue for fiscal year 2027, supplementing its ongoing business in other global markets.

Key specifics of the authorized transaction include:
* Shipment Volume: Between 40,000 and 80,000 H200 chips, equivalent to 5,000 to 10,000 modules.
* Pricing: Approximately $27,000 per unit.
* Total Estimated Value: A revenue range of $1.08 billion to $2.16 billion.

This move alleviates prior market concerns about a complete loss of access to the critical Chinese market. Reports indicate that while Nvidia may be required to share a portion of the proceeds with the US government, the essential distribution channel remains operational at a crucial juncture.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?

Market Context and Analyst Perspective

The resolution follows months of uncertainty surrounding US export restrictions on high-performance technology. From an investment standpoint, Nvidia's shares concluded the previous trading year at $186.50, registering a slight decline of nearly half a percent. Despite this, the stock's technical posture is viewed as stable, with institutional investors continuing to build their holdings.

Market analysts maintain a bullish outlook. The consensus median price target for Nvidia stands at $262, with more optimistic forecasts suggesting a realistic path to $352. Furthermore, the company's confirmed order backlog, estimated at around $275 billion for 2026, provides a long-term framework that tends to overshadow near-term volatility.

This export license effectively secures a major revenue stream for the immediate quarter and reinforces Nvidia's capacity to navigate complex international trade dynamics.