US-China Trade Pact Ignites Rally in USA Rare Earth Shares

Shares of USA Rare Earth surged dramatically in Thursday's trading, posting gains approaching 10% following two significant market-moving developments. The dual catalysts include the implementation of a landmark trade agreement between the United States and China concerning rare earth minerals, coupled with substantially improved earnings projections from a prominent financial research firm.

William Blair reinforced its positive stance on USA Rare Earth, maintaining its "Outperform" rating while issuing a notable revision to earnings expectations. Market strategist N. Dingmann now forecasts the company will achieve breakeven at $0.00 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, a meaningful improvement over the previous projection of a $0.01 per share loss.

This optimistic adjustment comes despite the company's recent earnings disappointment on November 6, when USA Rare Earth reported a quarterly loss of $0.25 per share, significantly underperforming against analyst expectations of a $0.06 per share deficit.

Historic Trade Agreement Reshapes Market Dynamics

Concurrent with the analyst upgrade, a groundbreaking trade framework between Washington and Beijing took effect, temporarily suspending China's export controls on critical minerals for a twelve-month period. The comprehensive arrangement addresses several strategically important materials:

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying USA Rare Earth?

• Rare earth elements
• Gallium and germanium
• Antimony and graphite

This development effectively rolls back trade restrictions originally imposed in October 2022 and April 2025, providing mining enterprises like USA Rare Earth with enhanced supply chain stability and improved operational predictability.

Market Performance and Outlook

Trading at $17.36 during the session, USA Rare Earth shares demonstrated substantial recovery momentum despite remaining well below their 52-week peak of $43.98 reached on October 13. The current valuation sits comfortably above the March low of $5.56, with the company maintaining a market capitalization of $1.98 billion.

While the stock continues to exhibit significant price volatility, market observers suggest the combination of favorable trade policies and improved financial projections could establish the foundation for a sustained recovery trajectory in the rare earth sector.