UnitedHealth Shares: Is a Recovery Rally Taking Shape?

A somber anniversary for the U.S. insurance behemoth coincides with a surprising resurgence in its stock price. As the trial of the accused, Luigi Mangione, continues in New York—one year after the tragic murder of CEO Brian Thompson—UnitedHealth's equity is staging a notable comeback on the exchange. Market experts are now pointing to significant upside potential, raising the question: is this the long-awaited reversal following a disastrous year for the stock?

The attempted recovery unfolds against the backdrop of what market observers termed a "perfect storm" throughout 2025. Beyond the human tragedy surrounding its leadership, the company grappled with substantial headwinds, including antitrust investigations and escalating costs across the healthcare sector. These factors contributed heavily to the share's steep decline, which remains approximately 40% down since the start of the year.

Analysts Revise Targets Upward

The shift in sentiment is largely attributed to a bullish analysis from Wolfe Research. The firm's strategists have meaningfully raised their price target, expressing confidence that the healthcare conglomerate can regain control over margins in its core operations. The Optum service division is singled out as a particular beacon of hope, seen as having the capacity to turn performance around.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Unitedhealth?

This newfound optimism arrives at a critical juncture. Wolfe Research analysts contend that the current valuation fails to account for the firm's long-term earnings potential, suggesting the market has been overly punitive.

Valuation Attracts High-Profile Interest

From a fundamental perspective, the equity appears attractively priced. Trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 17, the shares sit notably below their historical peaks. This valuation did not escape the notice of famed investor Warren Buffett. His holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, initiated a position in August, sending a powerful signal that risks may now be adequately priced in and a floor could be establishing itself.

The Strategic Pivot to 2026

The focus among investors has now shifted decisively toward the strategic path for 2026. Observers are betting that management will make the correct strategic adjustments, potentially including exits from unprofitable market segments. If UnitedHealth succeeds in expanding its margins as projected, the current trading range could mark the beginning of a sustained recovery rally. However, whether all risks have truly been mitigated will only become clear with the release of upcoming quarterly results.