U.S. Policy Shift Opens Door for Nvidia’s AI Chip Exports to China

In a significant policy reversal, the United States has partially lifted its stringent restrictions on semiconductor exports to China. A directive from President Donald Trump now permits Nvidia to sell specific high-performance AI chips to approved customers in the Chinese market. This move restores the technology giant’s access to a crucial revenue stream that had been severely curtailed by prior trade limitations.

The U.S. administration’s decision specifically authorizes the sale of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips. This represents a clear departure from recent restrictions that had heavily impacted the company’s operations in the world’s second-largest economy. However, the approval comes with a notable financial condition: Washington will claim 25% of the sales revenue generated from these exports. This model allows Nvidia to resume servicing Chinese clients while simultaneously creating direct income for the U.S. Treasury.

From a strategic standpoint, the measure aims to monetize older, yet still powerful, hardware without compromising America’s technological edge. Consequently, the most advanced chip architectures, including Blackwell and the forthcoming Rubin, remain strictly prohibited for export to China.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?

Market Reaction and Strategic Imperatives

Financial analysts view this development as a tactically astute maneuver. Researchers at William Blair highlight that re-entering the Chinese market is vital for defending Nvidia’s CUDA software ecosystem against intensifying local competition. Chinese manufacturers, notably Huawei, have made substantial progress in recent times. Previous estimates suggested the export bans were costing Nvidia approximately $8 billion in lost revenue per quarter.

Nvidia’s stock, which closed yesterday at €159.48, has already gained over 18% since the start of the year. Citi Bank reaffirms its positive "Buy" rating on the shares, setting a price target of $270. The bank’s strategists point to the long-term potential from upcoming product cycles, such as the Rubin chip anticipated for late 2026.

Growth Prospects and Execution Challenges

The partial reopening of the Chinese market supports the company’s already ambitious growth objectives. Consensus estimates project a 48% revenue increase for the 2027 fiscal year. Even accounting for the 25% government levy, the enormous volume potential in China is expected to make a material contribution to earnings. A key factor for the stock’s future trajectory will now be the speed at which Nvidia can ramp up H200 chip supply chains to meet pent-up demand across Asia.