The Looming Threat of Index Exclusion for a Major Bitcoin Holder

A significant cloud of uncertainty now hangs over Strategy Inc., the corporate Bitcoin acquisition vehicle formerly known as MicroStrategy. The company's substantial and growing cryptocurrency reserves have drawn the scrutiny of global index provider MSCI, potentially triggering its removal from major benchmarks and forcing billions in forced selling.

The core of the issue stems from a newly proposed MSCI policy. The index giant is currently consulting the market on how to treat firms with extensive crypto holdings, specifically labeling them "Digital Asset Treasury" companies. Under the proposed rules, such entities could be excluded entirely from flagship indices like the MSCI World.

Strategy has issued a formal response, condemning the planned 50% threshold for digital assets as "discriminatory, arbitrary, and impractical." Company leadership argues that its Bitcoin treasury is a fundamental component of its operational strategy, not merely a financial reserve. They further warn that implementing such a rule would set a "dangerous precedent" for financial innovation in the United States.

The market's concern is quantifiable. Analysts estimate that passive funds tracking MSCI benchmarks could be compelled to sell approximately $2.8 billion worth of Strategy shares in the event of an exclusion. This overhang is widely considered a key reason the stock has significantly underperformed Bitcoin's price movement since the autumn.

The timeline for this decision is now clear:
* The consultation period concludes on December 31, 2025.
* A final announcement is scheduled for January 15, 2026.
* Any implementation would occur in February 2026.

Unwavering Accumulation Amidst Scrutiny

Despite the regulatory and index-related headwinds, Strategy has not deviated from its core mission. The company continues to aggressively add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. In a recent disclosure, it reported purchasing 10,624 BTC between December 1 and 7, 2025, for roughly $962.7 million.

Key details of the acquisition:
* The average purchase price was $90,615 per Bitcoin.
* This brings Strategy's total holdings to over 660,000 BTC.
* The buys were funded primarily through recent preferred share offerings and existing liquid capital.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Strategy?

The market's reaction has been mixed. After a sharp decline in October and November—mirroring a Bitcoin pullback toward $80,000—the share price recovered from lows around $155. It has recently traded between $185 and $189. However, the broader picture remains challenging. In Euro terms, the stock at €157.85 sits approximately 21% below its 50-day moving average and is down about 46% year-to-date. A 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 84.2 also indicates the asset is in overbought territory following its rapid rebound from a clear downtrend.

A Pivotal Year Culminates in a Binary Event

2025 has been a transformative year for the firm, marked by its rebranding to Strategy Inc. and a reinforced identity as a primary Bitcoin investment vehicle. Following its late-2024 inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, the stock has experienced extreme volatility and remains well below its mid-year highs.

The potential MSCI exclusion now represents the most critical near-term risk. Beyond the technical selling pressure from index funds, removal would send a negative signal to benchmark-sensitive institutional investors. While market observers like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan assign a high probability (around 75%) to an exclusion, they note that a significant portion of this risk may already be reflected in the share price since October.

From a technical analysis perspective, the stock is attempting to establish a base near the $180 level. Chart analysts suggest a sustained breakout above $200 would be an initial signal that the Q4 downtrend is weakening. Conversely, the $155 zone is viewed as crucial support; a breakdown below this level could potentially trigger a move toward $130.

A Defined Path to Clarity

For investors, the path forward is clearly marked by two dates. The outcome presents a binary scenario:

• Should MSCI decide against the new rules, Strategy would retain its index membership, instantly eliminating the threat of $2.8 billion in forced sales. This could spark a sharp relief rally and a covering of short positions.
• If the exclusion proceeds, February 2026—when index rebalancing takes effect—is likely to usher in another period of heightened volatility for Strategy shares as passive funds execute their mandated sells.

All eyes will now remain fixed on MSCI's final decision come January 15, 2026.