The Battle for Obesity Treatment Supremacy Intensifies

The competitive landscape in the lucrative obesity drug market is entering a pivotal phase. Eli Lilly faces a defining year as rival Novo Nordisk secured U.S. regulatory approval for its Wegovy tablet just before Christmas, establishing a new benchmark in the GLP‑1 segment. Concurrently, Lilly is accelerating development of its own oral candidate, Orforglipron, and has released compelling study data on weight maintenance following injectable therapy. This sets the stage for a significant shift in the balance of power between the two pharmaceutical giants.

Eli Lilly enters the new year from a position of considerable operational strength. The company reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $17.6 billion, a 54% increase year-over-year. This surge was driven significantly by blockbuster drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, which more than doubled their combined revenues.

In the U.S. market for incretin analogs, Lilly now commands 57.9% of prescriptions, meaning nearly six out of every ten prescriptions in this class are for its products. Reflecting this robust performance, the company has raised its full-year 2025 guidance, now forecasting revenue between $63 and $63.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $23 to $23.70.

The investment community maintains a constructive view. According to MarketBeat data from December 17, 2025, the consensus rating from 26 analysts is "Moderate Buy." The average 12-month price target stands at $1,141.73, based on a closing price of $1,076.48 on December 22.

On the charts, Eli Lilly shares show solid performance, up approximately 20% since the start of 2025 and about 19% higher than twelve months prior, though currently trading just under 5% below their 52-week high.

Novo Nordisk Gains Ground with Oral Approval

Novo Nordisk's recent FDA approval for its oral Wegovy (semaglutid) pill for obesity treatment marks a substantial competitive development. The market leader plans to introduce the 25‑mg tablet in the United States in early January 2026, with a direct-to-consumer entry price for the starting dose set at $150 per month.

The timing is particularly significant. Throughout 2024 and 2025, Lilly had been reclaiming market share from Novo in the injectable GLP‑1 segment. Following the approval news, Novo Nordisk's stock advanced roughly 9% in early trading, as investors perceived an opportunity for the company to close the gap in the obesity race.

Novo's candidate also holds a clinical edge. In its OASIS‑4 trial, the Wegovy tablet demonstrated numerically stronger weight reduction compared to Orforglipron in Lilly's ATTAIN‑1 study. Furthermore, Wegovy's established safety profile is expected to ease physician adoption of the oral variant.

Lilly Counters with Focus on Weight Maintenance

In response, Eli Lilly highlights its own data on sustaining weight loss. On December 18, the company announced positive Phase 3 results for Orforglipron in patients who had previously completed a 72-week course of injectable GLP‑1 therapy with either Zepbound or Wegovy.

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Key findings from the study include:

• Patients previously treated with Wegovy gained less than one kilogram on average over one year while on Orforglipron.
• Following Zepbound treatment, the average weight regain was approximately five kilograms.
• The placebo group experienced a gain of over nine kilograms before a rescue therapy was offered.
• By the study's end, both treatment groups had a mean weight of 95.9 kilograms.

This addresses a central challenge in obesity treatment: significant weight regain after discontinuing incretin medications like Wegovy and Zepbound. Studies indicate up to half of patients stop treatment within twelve months. An oral agent that aids in weight maintenance could therefore become a crucial adjunct to initial injectable therapy.

Regulatory Speed and Pricing Commitments

Lilly has formally submitted Orforglipron for FDA review. Utilizing a national Priority Review Voucher, the regulatory decision could come significantly faster than the typical six to ten months—potentially within weeks. This accelerated pathway stems from an agreement with the Trump administration announced in November 2025.

Pricing remains under political scrutiny. Both Lilly and Novo Nordisk have committed to capping the monthly cost of their oral GLP‑1 therapies for starting doses at no more than $149 in direct-to-consumer channels. Wall Street analysts suggest these price pledges could expand patient access by approximately 40 million individuals, hinting at the vast, untapped volume remaining in this market.

Capacity Expansion and Pipeline Diversification

To meet soaring demand, Eli Lilly is substantially scaling its manufacturing footprint. On December 9, the company announced over $6 billion in investments for a new facility in Huntsville, Alabama, slated to produce small molecules and peptide medicines, including Orforglipron.

Simultaneously, Lilly is working to reduce its reliance on obesity and diabetes drugs. Updated Phase 3 data from the EMBER‑3 study for Inluriyo (imlunestrant), released on December 12, showed the drug continues to provide clinically meaningful benefit for patients with ER-positive, HER2-negative advanced or metastatic breast cancer.

The Road Ahead: Critical Milestones for 2026

The coming year outlines clear competitive milestones:

• First Quarter 2026: Anticipated FDA decision on Orforglipron via the fast-track process.
• Early 2026: Commercial launch of the Wegovy tablet in the United States.
• 2026: Potential approval for a high-dose Wegovy injection from Novo Nordisk.

Morningstar maintains its fair value estimate for Lilly at $770 per share. Its analysts note that recent data for Lilly's triple agonist retatrutid (December 11) and the Orforglipron weight maintenance study (December 18) may influence how future revenue projections for tirzepatid are allocated across various drug candidates. For tirzepatid itself, Morningstar forecasts peak sales of $75 billion by 2031.

The global obesity medication market is currently projected to grow to roughly $150 billion annually by the early 2030s. For Eli Lilly, securing swift approval for Orforglipron, ramping up production capacity as planned, and leveraging its strong position in the GLP‑1 business will be critical to carrying momentum into 2026.