Tesla Shares Face Pressure as Autonomous Driving Timeline Shifts

Tesla's stock has encountered a turbulent opening to 2026, declining by approximately 13% since the close of December. This downward pressure stems primarily from revised expectations for the company's self-driving technology, even as its core manufacturing operations post record numbers in a key market.

A significant adjustment to the company's autonomous driving roadmap is at the heart of recent investor caution. On January 8, CEO Elon Musk stated that Tesla now requires roughly ten billion miles of driving data to ensure a "safe, unsupervised" Full Self-Driving (FSD) system. This represents a substantial increase from the previously communicated threshold of six billion miles.

With the current data tally standing at about seven billion miles, analysts now project the new target will not be met until around July 2026. This timeline does not include subsequent validation phases and necessary regulatory approvals. The shift marks a stark contrast to Musk's comments from December 2025, which suggested unsupervised robotaxi services in Austin would launch before the new year. The initiation of only supervised test drives has been perceived by the market as a missed internal target.

Operational Strength from Shanghai Gigafactory

Counterbalancing the technology delays are robust operational results from Tesla's crucial production hub. The Gigafactory in Shanghai recently celebrated manufacturing its five-millionth electric drive unit. Throughout the past year, the facility served as the corporation's backbone, accounting for 52% of global vehicle deliveries.

December 2025 was a particular highlight, with the factory delivering over 97,100 vehicles to set a new monthly record. Sales within the Chinese market itself also grew by around 13% year-over-year. These strong delivery figures are providing underlying support for the share price, mitigating more severe selling pressure in light of the FSD delays.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla?

A Sharp Divide Among Market Experts

The growing divergence between strong production execution and delayed AI technology has led to unusually polarized analyst views. Bullish commentators, including Dan Ives of Wedbush, maintain price targets as high as $600, characterizing recent delivery performance as a "step in the right direction." Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research continues to view Tesla as the undisputed technology leader in its sector.

On the opposing side, critics like Gordon Johnson highlight fundamental risks. Despite a slight increase in his own price target to just over $25, he considers the stock—currently trading near $435.80—to be significantly overvalued, pointing to what he sees as flattening demand.

The recent share price retreat below the $440 level has additionally increased volatility. Activity in the options market reflects this, with traders actively repricing risk premiums.

Upcoming Quarterly Report in Focus

Attention now turns to the next critical date: January 28, when Tesla is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results. Investors will scrutinize the impact on profit margins following the earlier delivery target shortfalls. Furthermore, concrete updates regarding the production start of the "Cybercab," anticipated for April or May 2026, will be a central point of interest.