Tempus AI Shares Face Selling Pressure Amid Institutional Shifts

Tempus AI stock is experiencing significant volatility, driven not by weak business performance but by institutional portfolio adjustments. This selling pressure emerges even as the company reports a record order backlog, raising questions about whether its solid pipeline can withstand the current market dynamics.

Despite near-term headwinds, the company's fundamental metrics remain strong. Key figures include:
- 2026 Revenue Forecast: $1.59 billion
- Total Contract Value (TCV): Exceeds $1.1 billion (as of December 31, 2025)
- Preliminary 2025 Revenue: $1.27 billion
- 2025 Net Revenue Retention: Approximately 126%
- Current Market Capitalization: $11.62 billion

Management is targeting a positive adjusted EBITDA of around $65 million by the end of 2026. This path to profitability is supported by increasing test volumes in oncology, pricing power for complex assays (primary tests >$2,200, xT CDx ~$4,500), and operational efficiencies from the integration of Ambry Genetics. These factors are expected to improve earnings leverage and could counterbalance selling pressure over the medium term.

The Source of Recent Weakness

The recent price correction is closely tied to institutional repositioning. Reports indicate a major investor reduced its stake by 19.9%, divesting approximately 2.4 million shares. Such large-scale rebalancing has created near-term supply and weighed on technical sentiment.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tempus AI?

Furthermore, the market is digesting expectations for a more moderate growth rate in 2026 compared to the robust performance anticipated for 2025. Technical levels and momentum indicators have become significant contributors to the current volatility. The shares closed Friday at €58.50, trading roughly 34% below their 52-week high. The 50-day moving average, a key technical level, sits just above the current price at approximately €59.97.

The Path Forward and Key Catalysts

The decisive near-term catalyst will be the final fourth-quarter earnings report, expected in February. If Tempus AI confirms its 2026 outlook and the roadmap to positive EBITDA, a portion of the selling pressure could ease. Conversely, should the figures deviate from guidance or expected operational synergies fail to materialize, volatility may persist.

In the short term, a recovery above the 50-day moving average (around €60) would be an important signal of stabilization. While fundamental strengths and the substantial TCV base support a solid medium-term perspective, the upcoming February report will reveal whether this is sufficient to fully neutralize the current institutional selling pressure.