Strategy Shares Secure Index Status in MSCI Policy Reversal

A prolonged period of uncertainty for shareholders of Strategy has concluded. Index provider MSCI has reversed its course, deciding against removing companies with substantial digital asset holdings from its global indices. This move averts the immediate threat of massive forced selling by passive funds. However, while the near-term danger appears resolved, market specialists caution that new structural challenges could now impede the firm's growth trajectory.

Beyond the regulatory reprieve, Strategy's stock continues to grapple with the volatility of its core asset. The share price currently trades approximately 57% below its 52-week peak. This decline mirrors a significant correction in Bitcoin, which has fallen from highs above $126,000 in October 2025 to roughly $91,000 currently. Consequently, the company reported an unrealized loss of $17.44 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025.

A further structural issue is the relationship between its market capitalization and its net asset value (NAV). The stock has recently traded at a discount to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, complicating efforts to raise capital for additional purchases without diluting existing shareholders. Furthermore, S&P Global Ratings continues to classify its Bitcoin reserves as speculative assets with no capital value, a factor reflected in its B-minus credit rating.

A Reprieve, But With Significant Caveats

The MSCI announcement, made on January 6, 2026, has brought tangible relief to the markets. Had the exclusion proceeded, index funds tracking the MSCI USA Index would have been compelled to liquidate their positions in Strategy. Analysts at JPMorgan had estimated the potential selling pressure could have reached $8.8 billion.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Strategy?

Such a scenario likely would have triggered a cascade of price declines, given that the MSCI USA covers about 85% of the U.S. equity market and serves as a benchmark for countless institutional portfolios. The share price reacted positively to the news, advancing to a current level near $167.

Despite this success, the victory is qualified. MSCI has attached strict conditions to its decision. While Strategy remains in the index, new share issuances will no longer be factored into its index weighting. Additionally, its current index weight has been frozen.

This creates a concrete limitation: if Strategy raises new equity to finance further Bitcoin acquisitions, it will not trigger automatic buying from passive funds. The existing 50% threshold for digital asset holdings also remains in effect. Analysts from TD Cowen have characterized the development as positive but question whether it represents a genuine victory or merely a "stay of execution."

Outlook Tied to Bitcoin's Performance

Given the frozen index weighting and the persistent discount to intrinsic value, the situation remains challenging. Analysts maintain an average price target above $480, indicating they see substantial potential. However, the path to reaching that valuation now depends more heavily than ever on Bitcoin's pure price appreciation, as the "automatic" inflows from passive funds have been curtailed.