Strategy Inc.: Market Skepticism Clouds Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation

Strategy Inc. continues to execute its core strategy with unwavering focus, yet its equity performance tells a different story. The company is aggressively expanding its cryptocurrency holdings, but its shares are trading significantly below their value from a year ago. This divergence highlights a critical market debate: is the firm's business model still being rewarded, or are investors growing increasingly wary?

The central conflict for Strategy Inc. is clear. Management consistently reinforces its identity as a "Bitcoin Development Company." However, the financial markets are now pricing this role with far more caution than in previous years. Historically, investors were willing to pay a premium over the pure net asset value (NAV) of the firm's Bitcoin treasury, valuing its ability to use capital markets access to build greater crypto exposure.

This dynamic shifted noticeably in 2025. The stock has partially decoupled from the price movement of Bitcoin itself, and that historical premium has contracted. The persistent dilution from ongoing share issuance programs appears to be testing the patience of some shareholders, a sentiment underscored by the stock's prolonged trading near annual lows.

In essence, while Strategy delivers more Bitcoin per share, the market is no longer willing to pay the same premium for that exposure as it once did.

Recent Purchase Meets Muted Trading Response

In a late-December move, Strategy Inc. made another substantial addition to its digital asset reserves. A recent SEC filing revealed the company purchased an additional 1,229 Bitcoin between December 22 and 28, 2025, for approximately $108.8 million. This equated to an average price of about $88,568 per coin.

This acquisition brings the total Bitcoin treasure trove to 672,497 coins as of December 31, 2025. The cumulative expenditure for this position stands at roughly $50.44 billion, with an average acquisition cost of approximately $74,997 per Bitcoin.

Notably, the latest purchase was fully financed through equity markets. Strategy utilized its existing "At-The-Market" (ATM) share program, issuing new Class-A shares. The net proceeds from these sales were directly channeled into buying Bitcoin, effectively exchanging equity capital for increased crypto exposure.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Strategy?

For existing investors, this mechanism has a dual effect: the amount of Bitcoin backing each share (the company's "BTC Yield") increases, but each shareholder's proportional stake in the company is diluted by the new issuance.

The market's reaction was tepid. The stock concluded 2025 trading near its 52-week low, showing a yearly loss of approximately 48%. Currently priced around $151.92, the shares trade well below key moving averages—roughly 45% beneath the 200-day line. Interestingly, despite the steep decline over the past twelve months, a high Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading above 80 indicates a technically overbought condition.

Wall Street's Bullish Stance Contrasts with Market Action

Despite the weak price trajectory, the analytical perspective from Wall Street remains decidedly optimistic. Consensus data shows a strong bias among covering firms, with 27 issuing "Buy" recommendations, 13 advising "Hold," and only one suggesting "Sell."

The average price target presents a stark contrast to the current trading level. At $467.75 per share, it implies a potential upside of nearly 200% from today’s price. Many analysts view the stock as fundamentally undervalued relative to its substantial Bitcoin holdings and its consistent strategy of aggressive accumulation.

However, the substantial gap between the current price and analyst targets underscores a growing market demand for tangible proof. Investors increasingly require concrete evidence that the model of leveraging equity to amass Bitcoin creates lasting value and that the dilution will ultimately benefit long-term shareholders.

Outlook: Technical Support and Upcoming Catalysts

As trading for 2026 begins, the technical focus centers on the $150 zone. This level serves as a crucial support area; a decisive break below it could trigger additional selling pressure. Conversely, the enormous Bitcoin holding provides significant leverage to the upside. A rising cryptocurrency price could swiftly fuel a powerful rally, especially given the stock's inherent volatility.

A key near-term catalyst is on the calendar. In late January, Strategy is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results. This update will include fresh details on the status of its Bitcoin strategy, new targets for the "BTC Yield," and plans for further capital allocation. This communication will be a critical test of whether management can bolster the currently optimistic analyst view with fresh arguments or if the market will maintain its skeptical valuation.