Strategy Faces Perfect Storm as Bitcoin Slump and Index Delisting Loom

The company formerly known as MicroStrategy now confronts a dual crisis that threatens its very foundation. With Bitcoin prices falling below the critical $90,000 threshold and potential removal from major stock indexes on the horizon, Strategy's shares face what analysts describe as a perfect storm of negative catalysts that could trigger significant downward pressure.

According to recent analyses, the most immediate danger stems from index provider MSCI's potential decision to remove Strategy from key benchmarks like the MSCI USA Index. This action, scheduled for January 15, 2026, would result from the company's classification as a "Digital Asset Treasury" entity due to its substantial Bitcoin holdings.

The consequences of such a move could be severe. JPMorgan analysts project that passive funds would be compelled to divest approximately $2.8 billion worth of Strategy shares following an MSCI exclusion. Should additional indexes, including the Nasdaq-100, follow suit, the total forced selling could reach a staggering $8.8 billion. Market experts warn that liquidations on this scale would inevitably create substantial downward pressure on the stock's valuation.

Bitcoin Dependency Creates Vulnerability

Strategy's fundamental business model remains inextricably linked to Bitcoin's performance. The corporation currently safeguards 649,870 BTC, valued at approximately $48.4 billion. However, with Bitcoin trading around $84,500, the company's aggressive leveraging strategy shows signs of strain.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Strategy?

A critical development has been the collapse of the "market-implied Net Asset Value Premium" (mNAV). Strategy's shares now trade dangerously close to the underlying value of their Bitcoin reserves, eliminating the premium that previously enabled the company to raise capital efficiently through equity offerings. With the mNAV ratio falling below 1.2, the momentum that fueled their expansion strategy has effectively stalled.

Key Data Points:
* Current share price: approximately $170.50 (decline of 3.74%)
* Bitcoin holdings: 649,870 BTC valued at ~$84,557 per Bitcoin
* Potential forced selling: up to $8.8 billion
* Index decision date: January 15, 2026
* Implied volatility: 94%

Financing Challenges Emerge

Despite signaling intentions on November 22 to continue purchasing during market dips, Strategy faces growing obstacles. Historically, the company funded Bitcoin acquisitions through stock issuances carrying substantial premiums to book value. Without this premium advantage, the firm now confronts the prospect of costly dilution as cash reserves diminish and refinancing expenses increase.

The institutional sentiment shift is becoming increasingly evident. With expected volatility reaching 94%, markets are pricing in continued turbulence. Should Strategy receive classification as a specialized investment vehicle, the shares would likely lose appeal among mainstream investors—regardless of Bitcoin's future price trajectory.