Solana’s Critical Support Level Faces a Stern Test

As 2025 draws to a close, Solana presents a contradictory picture to the market. The network is celebrating record-breaking trading volumes, even surpassing Ethereum, yet its token price is grappling with crucial technical support levels. This growing divergence between robust fundamental usage and weakening price action, coupled with a decline in active users, leaves investors questioning the trajectory: Is the current price slump an overreaction, or the precursor to a more significant correction?

Amid the price weakness, institutional engagement has remained a stable pillar. Since the approval of spot ETFs, significant capital has flowed into Solana-based investment products. The Bitwise Solana ETF alone has attracted $369 million. Furthermore, the network's historical reliability concerns have seen substantial improvement, boasting 100% uptime over the past 15 months.

A Tale of Two Metrics: Volume vs. Users

The fundamental data reveals a striking split. In December 2025, Solana processed over $100 billion in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, decisively outpacing Ethereum. This surge was primarily fueled by high-frequency trading and activity on specific protocols.

However, this enormous volume is being driven by a shrinking user base. The count of monthly active users plummeted from 6.7 million in November to approximately 3 million in December. While capital within the ecosystem is highly active, the broader cohort of retail investors appears to be retreating in the face of a tense market atmosphere.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Solana?

The Technical Crucible: $118-$120

All eyes are now fixed on the charts. The coin is currently trading around $125, a level far removed from its yearly high near $294—representing a decline of more than 46% from its 52-week peak. Market analysts have pinpointed the $118 to $120 zone as a critical defensive line for bulls.

The stakes are high. A sustained break below this support band could, according to experts, trigger a further downtrend toward the $50 to $70 range in 2026. Conversely, a successful defense of this level would keep the longer-term bullish trend—intact since 2021—alive. In that scenario, the next key resistance targets would be situated at $130 and $180.

The 2026 Outlook: A Dual Focus

For investors at the start of 2026, the immediate priority is technical: holding the $120 level is the essential condition for any price stabilization. The longer-term potential, however, hinges on broader adoption. The market will be watching to see if forthcoming technical upgrades like the "Firedancer" client and strategic integrations, such as the potential partnership with Western Union, can succeed in winning back the users who have stepped away.