Solana at a Critical Juncture: Signs of Stabilization Emerge

As of December 10, 2025, Solana appears to be testing a potential inflection point. The fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is showing tentative signals of finding a base around the $138 level following an extended period of decline. A confluence of factors, including a deep liquidity flush visible in on-chain metrics, consistent ETF inflows, and an imminent major ecosystem conference, raises the question of whether a sustained recovery is on the horizon.

Contrasting with some on-chain caution, activity in the futures markets reflects growing trader optimism. Aggregate Open Interest climbed 2.89% in 24 hours to reach $7.26 billion. Trading volume for derivatives surged even more sharply, rising 23% to $18 billion.

Key metrics reveal a decisive shift in positioning. The proportion of long positions increased from 44.83% on Saturday to a current 52.55%. Furthermore, the past day saw $9.64 million in short positions liquidated, compared to only $5.20 million in long liquidations. A positive Funding Rate of 0.0224% further underscores this bullish tilt among derivatives participants.

This optimism is not without significant risk, however. A price decline to approximately $129—about 5.5% below current levels—could endanger long positions worth roughly $500 million. Conversely, a move upward of just 3% might trigger short-covering activity totaling around $110 million.

On-Chain Data Points to a Liquidity Reset

Glassnode analytics present a narrative of market cleansing. Solana's Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has remained below 1 since mid-November, indicating that more investors are closing positions at a loss than for a profit. This pattern is typically associated with a liquidity squeeze.

Market researchers at Altcoin Vector describe the situation as a "complete liquidity reset." Should the current dynamic mirror the pattern observed in April 2025, a recovery phase could commence as early as the start of January 2026, or potentially sooner. This consolidation stems from multiple pressures: realized losses create selling pressure, market makers reduce their activity, and liquidity becomes fragmented across numerous trading venues.

Institutional Interest Holds Steady via ETFs

Despite recent price weakness, institutional capital continues to flow into Solana-related investment products. On Tuesday, Solana ETFs recorded their highest net inflows since December 2, attracting $16.54 million. Weekly inflows now total $17.72 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of positive flows.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Solana?

A significant recent development is the launch of Franklin Templeton's Solana ETF (SOEZ) on NYSE Arca. This product distinguishes itself by offering staking rewards in addition to direct exposure, providing institutional investors with a mechanism to generate yield from the underlying Solana network.

Breakpoint Conference Looms as Potential Catalyst

The Solana ecosystem's flagship event, Breakpoint 2025, is scheduled for December 11-13 in Abu Dhabi. The conference is anticipated to host several major announcements that could influence market sentiment.

A live demonstration of the Firedancer performance upgrade is expected to showcase substantially faster validator throughput. The agenda also includes new privacy features tailored for institutional users and the launch of over 80 new projects spanning DeFi, Web3 infrastructure, and cross-chain bridges.

Particular attention is likely to focus on the Solana Mobile SKR Token, slated for a January launch. Of its total supply of 10 billion tokens, 30% are reserved for airdrop distributions.

Technical Analysis Outlook

From a chart perspective, Solana remains within a defined downtrend channel, yet early indications of diminishing selling pressure are emerging. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 48, recovering from previously oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is trending upward toward its baseline, while the Bollinger Bands are contracting—a pattern that often precedes a spike in volatility.

Critical price levels are clearly defined. A daily close above $145 would signal a potential structural shift, opening a path toward the $155 to $170 range. Conversely, a breakdown below the $135 support level could precipitate a further retreat toward $125.

Broader macroeconomic conditions may provide a tailwind. An expected 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on December 10 could bolster risk assets across the board. The pivotal question for Solana is whether it can sustainably conquer the $145 resistance level and if announcements from the Breakpoint conference will supply the necessary catalyst.