Solana Approaches a Potential Inflection Point

Market participants are closely monitoring Solana as several converging factors suggest a possible shift in momentum. On-chain metrics are flashing a pattern that has historically preceded significant rallies, while institutional products are attracting fresh capital and a key ecosystem event unfolds.

Institutional interest appears to be solidifying. Solana spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded net inflows for four consecutive days, marking the longest such streak in weeks. A notable $16.54 million flowed in on December 9 alone. Cumulative inflows have now reached $656.61 million, with total assets under management standing at $950.40 million.

This institutional footprint is expanding through several key developments:
* The Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF (QSOL) has filed its Form 8-A with the SEC, positioning it for a potential launch on the Cboe BZX Exchange.
* Franklin Templeton’s SOEZ ETF recently began trading on the NYSE Arca, offering staking rewards to investors.
* The CME Group has scheduled the launch of spot-based Solana futures for December 15.

A Historical Liquidity Signal Emerges

Analysis from Glassnode and Swissblock indicates Solana is undergoing what experts term a "full liquidity reset." The liquidity index has fallen to its cyclical low—a condition that, on three separate occasions this year, initiated substantial upward price movements. Adding to this signal, the average ratio of realized profits to losses has remained below 1 since mid-November, indicating that investors are currently realizing more losses than gains.

Historical data shows that previous cycles saw intervals of approximately 79, 41, and 43 days between such a reset and the subsequent upward phase. If this rhythm holds, a new movement could begin in early January 2026. The research group Altcoin Vector notes that a complete liquidity reset has historically often served as the starting point for trend phases lasting weeks.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Solana?

Ecosystem Momentum Builds at Breakpoint

From December 11-13, over 6,000 attendees are gathering in Abu Dhabi for Breakpoint, Solana's flagship ecosystem conference. The event is expected to feature major announcements, including the performance-enhancing Firedancer upgrade for higher validator throughput, new privacy features targeting institutional users, and the January launch of the Solana Mobile SKR token, which will have a total supply of 10 billion. More than 80 new decentralized applications (DApps) and tools are slated for unveiling.

The underlying ecosystem is showing strength: Total Value Locked (TVL) has increased by 7% to $8.8 billion, weekly DEX volume is up 17%, and stablecoin liquidity has grown to $15.586 billion.

Technical Analysis at a Critical Juncture

Solana's price, currently at $137.65, is testing a crucial technical level. The immediate resistance lies at $140.96, which corresponds to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. A decisive break above this point could pave the way for a move toward the 50-day average in the $145 to $152 range.

Support on the downside is critical at $127.06. Data from CoinGlass suggests a breach below this level could place long positions worth approximately $500 million under liquidation pressure. However, derivative markets are currently positioned bullishly, with the long/short ratio jumping from 44.83% to 52.55%.

Macroeconomic Focus: The Fed's Decision

Short-term direction may be influenced by the outcome of today's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates market expectations are heavily skewed, with an 89.9% probability priced in for a 25-basis-point rate cut. A dovish tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could provide additional tailwinds for risk assets like Solana. The coming weeks will reveal whether the historical liquidity pattern repeats and if the momentum from institutional products and ecosystem developments translates into sustained price action.