SoftBank Reaps OpenAI Gains as Valuation Climbs, Debt Signals Risk

Vision Fund posts a record quarter
In the reported quarter, the Vision Fund returned decisively to the black. The main catalyst was the rising valuation of SoftBank?s stake in OpenAI, the ChatGPT creator. Following investments totaling more than $30 billion, SoftBank now holds about 11% of the AI company. By end-December 2025, the estimated fair-value gain from the OpenAI investment stood at $19.8 billion. This unrealized gain offset losses from other portfolio holdings.

Aggressive bets push the balance sheet to the limit
To finance its AI ambitions, SoftBank has been pruning stakes in other tech names, including Nvidia and T-Mobile. The push into artificial intelligence has come at a cost to the balance sheet: the loan-to-value ratio rose to 20.6% as of the end of December. At the same time, cash reserves shrank to 3.8 trillion yen.

Market reaction ahead of the results was positive, helped by sturdy performance from SoftBank?s telecommunications segment and a rally in Arm, the group?s subsidiary. However, on February 13, the stock eased lower as US technology equities weakened.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SoftBank?

OpenAI remains the hinge on SoftBank?s fortunes
SoftBank?s trajectory is closely tied to OpenAI?s development. As long as the AI firm?s valuation continues to climb, SoftBank benefits disproportionately. Yet the higher leverage also highlights a vulnerability: the mega bet on artificial intelligence has left the company financially more exposed should the AI thesis falter.

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