Silver’s Meteoric Rise Faces a Moment of Truth

The silver market is navigating a complex landscape defined by shifting US trade policy, escalating geopolitical tensions, and unprecedented investor inflows. Despite a recent pullback from record highs above $93 per troy ounce, the metal's underlying bullish trajectory remains firmly intact. The critical question now is how powerfully politics and physical scarcity will continue to propel prices.

As of Friday's close, silver settled at $89.94, marking a daily decline of 2.46%. Zooming out reveals a far more bullish picture: the metal has gained approximately 34% over the past 30 days and is up more than 24% year-to-date. While the price sits about 3.5% below its 52-week peak of $93.19, it has nearly doubled from its low of $46.90.

A cornerstone of silver's current strength is unmistakable demand from the exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, showcasing a remarkable concentration of capital.

• The iShares Silver Trust has recorded 169 consecutive days of net inflows.
• Private investors have poured $921.8 million into silver ETFs over the last 30 days.
• This fervent activity has led analysts to label silver the "Most Crowded Commodity Trade Ever."

These figures point to massive positioning by both institutional and retail investors. Market participants increasingly view silver not merely as an industrial commodity but as a monetary reserve and a hedge against systemic instability. On January 17, economist Jim Rickards cautioned that converging factors—including rising industrial demand, constrained supply, and monetary uncertainty—could trigger an "explosive revaluation." This environment makes the metal susceptible to sharp moves in either direction, where intensified buying can fuel rapid gains, while profit-taking can equally spur swift declines.

The "Trump Dip" and Tariff Policy Volatility

The immediate retreat from record levels was triggered by an unexpected US policy shift. On January 16, President Trump announced the temporary suspension of planned new tariffs on processed critical minerals, which included silver.

Many traders had previously anticipated an immediate supply constriction from import duties. Consequently, the announcement prompted a swift sell-off from the highs, with prices falling roughly 7%. Market observers identified this as a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction: speculative bets placed in anticipation of tariffs were unwound when their implementation was delayed.

Notably, silver quickly found its footing and pushed back toward the $90 zone. This resilience suggests the foundational uptrend remains healthy despite short-term disappointment. Technically, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 62, indicating a neutral-to-slightly-overbought condition. The current price trades nearly 29% above its 50-day moving average of $69.72—a clear signal of a strong, albeit mature, bullish trend.

Geopolitics Fuels Safe-Haven Demand

Simultaneously, a second political front is bolstering demand for perceived safe-haven assets. On January 17, Trump threatened 10% tariffs on imports from eight European nations—including Germany, Denmark, and the United Kingdom—if they do not support a US purchase of Greenland.

The potential for these punitive tariffs to increase to 25% starting June 1, 2026, further amplifies market uncertainty. A trade conflict within NATO would be a profound breach of norms, stoking fears over economic growth, supply chains, and currency stability. In this climate, capital is increasingly flowing into precious metals.

Gold is trading near its own record high above $4,600 per ounce. Silver benefits in its wake, acting as a "little brother" crisis currency with the added dimension of industrial utility. This combination of safe-haven buying and structural demand is creating a uniquely dynamic market.

Structural Scarcity Provides a Firm Foundation

Beneath the political theater, a tightening fundamental picture continues to underpin the market. Analysts forecast a fifth consecutive annual supply deficit for 2025. Mine production growth is limited, while industrial consumption continues to expand.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?

Key demand drivers include:

• AI Data Centers: Soaring electricity consumption and related infrastructure build-out.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): Expanding use of silver in electronics and various components.
• Solar Industry: High and continuously growing demand for photovoltaic applications.

Global data center power usage surged 19% in 2024 and is expected to persist at this elevated level. This forces utilities and industries to undertake massive capacity and infrastructure expansions, creating substantial material demand. In response, many companies are seeking to secure physical supplies early, which establishes a price floor and limits the depth of any corrections.

Technical Perspective: A Necessary Consolidation

From a chart analysis standpoint, silver is undergoing a consolidation phase following its steep ascent. The market has cooled from severely overbought conditions but remains firmly within a positive trend channel.

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance:
  The primary hurdle for a rally resumption is the zone around $93–$94, near the current 52-week high.

• Support:
  Strong support is seen at $88.50 and $86.00. A sustained break below these levels could initiate a deeper correction, potentially erasing a portion of recent gains.

• Potential Price Targets:

  • Analysts at Citi see prices around $100 per troy ounce as achievable.
  • CoinCodex suggests a more optimistic scenario could see levels near $122 by mid-February 2026.

These targets are heavily contingent on the persistence of strong ETF inflows and the absence of a significant de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion: A Resilient Uptrend Amid Crosscurrents

Silver is currently balanced between US tariff policy, growing transatlantic conflict potential, historic ETF inflows, and a tightening fundamental backdrop. The suspension of US tariffs on critical minerals applied short-term pressure without breaking the broader advance. Concurrently, threats of new trade penalties, safe-haven demand, and structural supply deficits continue to support the price floor.

As long as the crucial support zone around $86 holds and the market trades above its 50-day moving average, the medium- to long-term uptrend remains valid. The coming weeks will likely be dictated by new signals from Washington and Europe. In this tightly wound and heavily positioned market, any escalation or easing of trade rhetoric has the potential to trigger immediate and pronounced price reactions.