Rocket Lab Shares Reach New Peaks Amid Divergent Analyst Views

Shares of Rocket Lab USA surged to a fresh record high during Friday's trading session, propelled by a bullish reassessment from Morgan Stanley. The investment bank's upgrade highlights the company's significant growth runway, even as another prominent analyst firm expressed caution about the stock's valuation following its meteoric rise.

The rally was ignited by Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag, who raised her rating on the stock from "Equal Weight" to "Overweight." In a decisive move, she also increased the price target substantially from $67 to $105. This new target suggests an approximate 15% upside from current levels, even after the equity's impressive multi-month advance.

Morgan Stanley's optimism is largely rooted in the favorable outlook for space technology heading into 2026. A pivotal factor is the recent $816 million contract secured with the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA). This agreement provides Rocket Lab with long-term revenue visibility and validates its strategic pivot from being a pure-play launch provider to a comprehensive space infrastructure company.

This positive stance, however, stands in direct opposition to the view from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Just one day prior to the stock's record-breaking move, KeyBanc downgraded Rocket Lab from "Overweight" to "Sector Weight."

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab USA?

KeyBanc's analysts centered their reasoning on valuation concerns. With the stock having soared more than 268% over the past twelve months, they argue that the positive growth drivers are already fully reflected in the share price. While they continue to regard Rocket Lab as an industry leader, KeyBanc sees the risk-reward profile as balanced at levels above $90. This disagreement underscores the current market tension between robust growth prospects and rich valuation multiples.

Executive Stock Sales Provide Context

Amid this volatility, transactions by company insiders have drawn investor attention. Director Merline Saintil disposed of shares worth approximately $9.4 million this week.

These sales warrant a nuanced interpretation. A portion of the transactions were executed under a pre-arranged "Rule 10b5-1" trading plan, which was established on September 17, 2025. Such plans schedule sales at predetermined times to eliminate any suspicion of insider trading. Consequently, these disposals are more indicative of a planned liquidity event rather than a reaction to the current share price or operational concerns.

Operational Execution Takes Center Stage

Market focus now shifts to the company's operational performance in the coming months. The quarterly results expected on February 25, 2026, will be a critical test of whether Rocket Lab can meet elevated expectations. Concrete progress on the development of its Neutron rocket and improvements in gross margins are viewed as essential for the company to achieve the $105 price target. Should the shares establish a sustained foothold above the $93 level, it could pave the way toward the psychologically significant $100 threshold.