Rigetti Stock: A Surprising Analyst Shift Amidst Mixed Signals

A dramatic revision in analyst forecasts has injected fresh momentum into Rigetti Computing's shares, arriving just one week after the company posted quarterly results that presented a complex picture. While the quantum computing sector remains highly speculative, this unexpected upgrade points to previously unrecognized potential. The central question for investors is whether this development can truly overcome the prevailing market skepticism.

Rigetti's third-quarter financials revealed conflicting trends. On one hand, the company fell short of revenue expectations, posting only $1.95 million—representing a significant 18.1% year-over-year decline. However, the loss per share told a more positive story, coming in at $0.03 compared to the anticipated $0.05 loss, demonstrating better-than-projected cost management.

Cantor Fitzgerald's Unexpected Vote of Confidence

In a move that caught market observers by surprise, Cantor Fitzgerald substantially improved its earnings outlook for Rigetti Computing. The analysis firm now projects a loss of just $0.16 per share for the full 2025 fiscal year, a notable improvement over their previous forecast of a $0.29 per share deficit. This optimistic adjustment stands in stark contrast to the mixed quarterly performance that might otherwise have justified continued caution.

Divided Sentiment on Wall Street

The investment community appears split in its assessment of Rigetti's prospects. While Cantor Fitzgerald has turned decidedly more bullish, other research entities including Benchmark and B. Riley have responded differently—either reducing their price targets or maintaining neutral ratings. This divergence of opinion reflects the inherent uncertainty surrounding innovative technology firms operating in emerging sectors.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rigetti?

Commercial Progress and Government Contracts

Beyond analyst opinions, Rigetti has demonstrated tangible business advancement through recent commercial achievements. The company secured orders totaling $5.7 million for two Novera quantum systems, complemented by a separate $5.8 million contract awarded by the United States Air Force Research Laboratory. These developments suggest growing institutional confidence in Rigetti's technological offerings.

The Technology Roadmap and Financial Runway

Rigetti maintains commitment to an ambitious technological timeline, with plans to complete a system exceeding 100 qubits by year-end and develop a platform boasting more than 1,000 qubits by 2027. With approximately $600 million in cash reserves, the company appears to have sufficient financial resources to pursue these developmental milestones.

Investor Nervousness Persists

Despite these positive indicators, market participants remain cautious. The equity has experienced considerable price volatility, declining more than 44% over the past 30 trading days alone. This substantial fluctuation underscores ongoing investor apprehension about whether Rigetti can achieve the technological breakthroughs necessary to justify long-term expectations in this cutting-edge field.