Rigetti Computing: Quantum Promise Meets Market Reality

As Rigetti Computing prepares to release its quarterly earnings, the quantum computing pioneer finds itself at a critical juncture. The company's stock faces sharply divided analyst opinions following its extraordinary 2,200% surge over the past year, creating intense speculation about whether current valuations reflect genuine potential or speculative excess.

Despite projecting a loss of $0.05 per share and anticipating moderate revenue declines to approximately $2.17 million, Rigetti demonstrates significant commercial traction. The company secured $5.7 million in orders during September alone for two 9-qubit systems scheduled for delivery in 2026.

Their client portfolio reveals substantial validation: a major Asian technology conglomerate and a U.S. startup specializing in hardware and error correction research have both placed orders. Further strengthening their position, a $5.8 million contract with the U.S. Air Force establishes their foothold in the defense sector.

The Analyst Divide Deepens

Market experts display remarkable disagreement about Rigetti's prospects. B. Riley Securities downgraded the stock from "Buy" to "Hold," cautioning that future growth expectations may already be priced into the current valuation. Paradoxically, the firm simultaneously raised its price target from $35 to $42 per share, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the quantum computing specialist.

Contrasting this view, Needham analyst Quinn Bolton maintains his bullish stance with a "Buy" recommendation. He dramatically increased his price target to $51—the highest on Wall Street—citing the company's recent commercial achievements as evidence of successful execution toward commercialization.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rigetti?

Strategic Alliances Strengthen Position

Rigetti's recent announcement of support for NVIDIA's NVQLink platform represents a potential strategic breakthrough. This integration of AI supercomputing with quantum processors positions the company at the forefront of hybrid quantum-AI computing architectures—a market segment with substantial long-term potential.

The February partnership with Quanta Computer, involving over $100 million in commitments, further demonstrates growing industry confidence in Rigetti's technological roadmap and execution capabilities.

Resource Advantage and Technical Milestones

With more than $570 million in cash reserves and no debt, Rigetti possesses ample financial resources to fund continued research and development. The company's technical progress remains impressive, achieving 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity and targeting delivery of a 100-plus qubit system by year's end.

The fundamental question facing investors is whether Rigetti can translate its technological leadership and financial strength into sustainable growth, or if the stock faces a significant correction following last year's meteoric rise. The upcoming earnings report may provide crucial direction for this emerging quantum computing investment.