Rigetti Computing Faces Critical Juncture as Roadmap Shifts

The quantum computing specialist Rigetti Computing finds itself at a pivotal moment. A surprising delay in its technology roadmap, coupled with declining revenue, is generating significant market unease. The central question for investors is whether new government contracts can restore confidence or if the formidable technical challenges of scaling quantum hardware will prove too great.

Examining the company's recent financial results does little to assuage investor skepticism. For the third quarter of 2025, Rigetti reported revenue of $1.95 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 18.1%. While the company continues to invest heavily in research and development, leading to ongoing losses, its cash burn rate remains a critical metric. Although its cash position is currently viewed as stable, bolstered by recent option exercises, the company's valuation is being scrutinized more intensely against this backdrop of falling income. Critics frequently highlight the disconnect between Rigetti's multibillion-dollar market capitalization and its still-modest commercial sales.

Revised Timeline Highlights Scaling Difficulties

The immediate cause of the current uncertainty is a revised schedule for Rigetti's 108-qubit system. The general availability of the "Cepheus-1" computer has now been pushed back to the end of the first quarter of 2026. Company officials state that additional time is required for testing and optimization to improve the crucial two-qubit gate fidelity from the current 99.0% to the target of 99.5%. This setback underscores the immense technical complexity involved in advancing quantum hardware.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rigetti?

Analyst Sentiment Remains Divided

Wall Street's view on Rigetti is not unanimous, despite these operational headwinds.
* The Bull Case: Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a $40 price target, expressing continued faith in the firm's modular approach. Mizuho has also reiterated its support for the company.
* The Cautious View: Taking a more middle-ground stance, Jefferies issued a "Hold" rating, advising caution due to near-term execution risks.

A key positive for the company is its contract pipeline. Rigetti recently secured orders worth approximately $5.7 million for two of its 9-qubit systems, in addition to a $5.8 million contract award from the Air Force Research Laboratory. These deals demonstrate tangible demand within the government and defense sectors.

The coming months are set to be decisive. Investors will be watching closely to see if Rigetti can meet its new target date for the 108-qubit system in Q1 2026. Only the timely delivery of the promised performance metrics is likely to dispel doubts about the company's roadmap and validate the more optimistic analyst projections.