Rigetti Computing: A High-Stakes Bet on Quantum Potential

The investment case for Rigetti Computing presents a stark dichotomy. On one side sits a formidable war chest of cash; on the other, a core business struggling to generate meaningful revenue. This dynamic frames the company as a quintessential high-risk, high-reward narrative stock, with investor attention now laser-focused on an upcoming presentation by its leadership.

All eyes are on Tuesday, January 13, 2026. On that day, Rigetti's CEO, Dr. Subodh Kulkarni, and CFO, Jeff Bertelsen, are scheduled to participate in the 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference. Market participants are particularly keen for Dr. Kulkarni's fireside chat, set for 12:45 p.m. ET. This event is viewed as a critical opportunity for management to bolster confidence and justify the company's substantial valuation by providing tangible evidence of technological progress.

Investors are seeking clear updates on the company's technology roadmap and, specifically, the planned launch of its 150+ qubit system by late 2026. The market is demanding proof that the massive investment in research and development is yielding results, making this appearance a potential catalyst for near-term share price volatility.

The Core Financial Contradiction

The company's valuation is currently underpinned by exceptional liquidity. As of November 6, 2025, Rigetti reported holding approximately $600 million in cash and equivalents. This reserve, which grew further following the third quarter due to warrant exercises, provides a lengthy runway for the capital-intensive process of developing quantum processors.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rigetti?

This financial strength, however, contrasts sharply with operational performance. In November 2025, the firm announced third-quarter revenue of just $1.95 million—an 18.1% decline year-over-year. This figure underscores the ongoing challenges in commercializing quantum technology. A single positive note was the earnings per share result: an adjusted loss of $0.03, which was better than the $0.05 loss analysts had anticipated.

Market Sentiment and Valuation Concerns

Wall Street's view remains cautiously optimistic but divided. The consensus analyst rating currently stands at "Moderate Buy," with an average price target of $31. The central debate revolves around the glaring disconnect between Rigetti's market capitalization, which exceeds $8 billion, and its quarterly revenue, which remains in the low single-digit millions.

The equity, which recently closed at $25.15 and has advanced more than 6% since the start of the year, is fundamentally a wager on future technological supremacy. Whether the current share price level can be sustained depends almost entirely on the credibility of the executive team's presentation this coming Tuesday. Their ability to convincingly outline a path to achieving this year's technical milestones will be the decisive factor for many investors.