Pressure Mounts on Mondelez Shares Amid Institutional Selling and Cost Headwinds

Mondelez International finds itself navigating a challenging period as significant institutional selling coincides with rising input costs, squeezing profit margins. The critical question for investors is whether the stock can reverse its current medium-term downtrend. The answer likely hinges on upcoming quarterly results and the technical battle around the $60 per share level.

• Market Capitalization: $73.86 billion
• Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 21.44
• Dividend Yield: Approximately 3.5% ($2.00 per share)
• Moving Averages: 50-day line at $55.26 | 200-day line at $60.38
• Consensus Price Target: $66.00
• Distance from 52-Week High ($71.15): Roughly 24%

The Dual Challenge: Selling Pressure and Margin Squeeze

The snack food giant is confronting pressure on two fronts. On the markets, a shift in sentiment among major investors is evident. Recent regulatory filings show institutional repositioning, with Florida Trust Wealth Management reducing its Mondelez holding by 13.9%, a sale of over 17,600 shares. This activity occurred ahead of the next earnings release and signals a more cautious stance, even after previous quarters saw increased positions from large firms like JPMorgan.

Simultaneously, the company's operational margins are under strain from soaring commodity prices. Key ingredients like cocoa and dairy have become more expensive, impacting profitability across its global snack portfolio. This effect was starkly visible in the company's Indian operations. Mondelez India reported a net loss of 11 crore ₹ for the latest fiscal year, a dramatic reversal from a profit of 2,021 crore ₹ the year before, highlighting the significant earnings pressure facing the broader corporation.

Technically, the stock's persistent trading below its 200-day moving average of $60.38 reinforces the narrative of a sustained medium-term downward trend.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Mondelez?

Upcoming Earnings and Analyst Sentiment

All eyes are now on the financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, scheduled for release on February 3. This report will be pivotal in assessing whether the company can maintain its previously reported year-over-year revenue growth of 5.9% in an inflationary environment.

Analysts have been adjusting their models in response to these headwinds. UBS, for instance, revised its price target downward from $63 to $60 while maintaining a neutral rating. The company's last quarterly report slightly missed consensus estimates, with earnings per share coming in at $0.73 against expectations of $0.74.

The $60 price level stands as a crucial technical barrier. A sustained move above it could challenge the prevailing downtrend, while failure to break through would likely extend the current period of pressure for Mondelez shares.