Policy Shift Clouds Outlook for MP Materials

Quarterly Results and Sector Context

Investor attention is now turning to operational performance. MP Materials is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results after the U.S. market closes on Thursday, February 26. A conference call will follow at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time). The company's previous quarterly report (Q3 2025) highlighted a record production of 721 tons of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), representing a 51% year-over-year increase, alongside cash and short-term investments totaling $1.94 billion.

This update arrives amidst notable developments for a competitor. In the same week, USA Rare Earth reportedly secured a substantial $1.6 billion financing package, comprising $277 million in federal funds and a $1.3 billion loan under the CHIPS Act. Notably, this agreement did not include any minimum price guarantee, marking a stark contrast to MP Materials' own arrangement. Furthermore, USA Rare Earth stated its intention to purchase similar rare earth materials on the open market at $125 per kilogram—a price point above the $110 per kilogram floor guaranteed to MP Materials.

A Reported Pivot on Price Supports

According to a Reuters report, senior officials within the current administration conveyed a new stance during a private meeting with U.S. resource industry executives. The message was that new critical minerals projects must prove economically viable without relying on government-backed price supports. Audrey Robertson, Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Department of Energy and head of the Office of Critical Minerals, was cited as making the position clear: the government is not there to "prop up" projects with price guarantees.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying MP Materials?

This represents a distinct shift in direction. Just last summer, government representatives had signaled that the minimum price arrangement linked to MP Materials was "not a one-off" and that similar solutions for other projects were being developed.

Existing MP Materials Deal Stands, But Scrutiny Intensifies

The reported policy reversal does not affect MP Materials' existing agreement. In July 2025, the company finalized a public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). The core components of this deal include a 10-year price floor of at least $110 per kilogram for its NdPr products and a $400 million DoD investment in the form of preferred stock.

However, the Reuters report notes that this very investment has sparked internal and congressional concern regarding budget and funding authorizations. The Senate Armed Services Committee has reportedly launched a review, requesting Pentagon staff to explain the rationale behind the price support provision. For MP Materials, the practical implication is that while the partnership remains intact, the heightened political debate increases uncertainty surrounding the potential for future, comparable government programs.

Key Facts:
* The U.S. administration appears to be moving away from offering general minimum price guarantees for critical minerals projects.
* MP Materials' existing $400 million DoD partnership, including a $110/kg NdPr price floor, remains unchanged.
* Q4 2025 earnings are due for release after market close on February 26.