Plug Power Shares Surge Amid Divergent Analyst Views

The beginning of 2026 has been marked by significant volatility for Plug Power. Despite a recent sharp rally in its share price, prominent market voices are sounding alarms about a potential steep decline. Interestingly, the source of this uncertainty stems from a new agreement with a major client, Walmart, which has raised questions about the durability of their partnership.

Beyond the stock market fluctuations, Plug Power is advancing its global footprint. The company recently installed equipment in Namibia for what is slated to be Africa's first fully integrated green hydrogen project. Concurrently, in France, a letter of intent was signed for a production project in Signes.

The coming weeks are poised to be critical for the company's trajectory. A previously postponed annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for January 29, 2026. This will be followed by the release of fourth-quarter results expected in late February. Market researchers anticipate a significant year-over-year reduction in the loss per share, coupled with revenue climbing to approximately $220 million.

A Rally Met with Caution

Plug Power's equity experienced a substantial uplift of over 21% last week, with its current price standing at $2.39. This one-month performance, showing an advance of nearly 10%, has notably outpaced the broader technology sector, which saw minor losses during the same period.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Plug Power?

However, this upward movement is viewed with deep skepticism by some analysts. Ameet Thakkar of BMO Capital Markets has reaffirmed his "Underperform" rating on the stock, attaching a price target of just $1.30. This projection implies a potential downside of roughly 46% from current trading levels.

The Walmart Agreement: A Double-Edged Sword?

The catalyst for Thakkar's cautious stance is a revised licensing pact with retail giant Walmart. The new terms provide Walmart with specific safeguards: should a predefined "Release Event" occur, the retailer gains access to certain Plug Power technologies and the freedom to select alternative suppliers. Furthermore, existing warrants held by Walmart have been terminated. Several market experts interpret these contractual changes as a potential exit strategy for the key customer, casting doubt on the strength and permanence of the business relationship.

Contrasting Perspective from Clear Street

Not all analysis aligns with this pessimistic outlook. The research firm Clear Street has adopted a decidedly more bullish position, upgrading its rating on Plug Power from "Hold" to "Buy." Their optimism is anchored in the company's implemented cost-saving initiative, which aims to reduce annual expenses by $200 million. Additionally, Clear Street analysts believe that enacted price increases could improve profit margins and contribute to a more stable financial position. Their price target for the shares is set at $3.00.