Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG 05.11.2024 / 09:01 CET / CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.

Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG

05.11.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG

     Company Name:                THE NAGA GROUP AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A161NR7

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              Buy
     from:                        05.11.2024
     Target price:                EUR 1.40
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Frederik Jarchow

Merger burdened H1 figures; Growth ahead; chg

Topic: Last week, NAGA reported unaudited figures for H1Ž24 that came in
weaker than expected on both top- and bottom line, mainly due to effects
related to the merger of NAGA and CAPEX. In detail:

Sales of EUR 31.6m (vs eNuW: EUR 33.8m) were below previous yearŽs pro forma
figures of EUR 36.0m. According to the company, this was the resulting from
the closure of loss-making non-core subsegments. This is reflected in lower
than anticipated avg. revenue per trade of only EUR 4.0 (vs EUR 5.0 pro forma in
H1Ž23 vs eNuW: EUR 4.5). Positively, trading activity increased to 7.9m
transactions (vs 7.2m pro forma in H1Ž23 vs eNuW: 7.5m).

EBITDA came in at EUR 2.6m, above previous yearŽs figures (EUR 1.5m pro forma in
H1Ž23), but below our expectations (eNuW: EUR 4.4m). The positive yoy
development is mainly driven by significant cost cutting, i.e. of sales
related expenses (EUR 6.2m vs EUR 8.7m pro forma H1Ž23 vs eNuW: EUR 6.3m),
personnel expenses (EUR 5.7m vs EUR 7.0m pro forma in H1Ž23 vs eNuW: EUR 6.0m) and
other operating costs (EUR 5.8m vs EUR 7.6m pro forma H1Ž23 vs eNuW: EUR 4.6m)
overcompensating for the weaker topline. Still, due to higher than
anticipated marketing expenses as well as lower other operating income and
sales, EBITDA fell short of expectations. EBT of EUR -4.1m (vs eNuW: EUR -2.4m),
is mainly burdened by regular D&A to the tune of EUR 5.5m and financing costs
of EUR 1.2m.

Despite the rather disappointing H1Ž24 figures, the outlook remained bright.
On the back of high marketing spendings in H1, the launch of the fully
integrated NAGA SuperApp within the Telegram ecosystem with more than 950m
user, as well as the cooperation with Borussia Dortmund, we expect a
significant sequential improvement in H2 that should result in EUR 67.5m in
sales and EUR 5.9m EBITDA in FY24, which is rather conservative and below the
internal plan of EUR 75m in sales and EUR 8.6m.

For FY26e, management plan to achieve EUR 129m and EUR 31m EBITDA, which looks
ambitious but not out of reach, yet below our current estimates of EUR 103m
sales and EUR 19m EBITDA). Keep in mind that an incremental positive change in
the sentiment could have an enormous effect on the P&L of NAGA.

BUY with a unchanged PT of EUR 1.40 based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31179.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2022269 05.11.2024 CET/CEST