Oatly’s Path to Profitability: Fourth Quarter 2025 Results in View

Investor attention is fixed on Oatly Group AB as the oat drink specialist prepares to release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial report. Following a year of operational restructuring, the market is keen to see if the company has solidified its journey toward sustainable profitability.

The financial figures are scheduled for release on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, before U.S. markets open. Management will host a conference webcast to discuss the results on the same day at 2:00 p.m. Central European Time (CET). The primary focus for analysts will be the progress on operational earnings, specifically Adjusted EBITDA, and updates on the strategic realignment within the Asian markets.

Strategic Shifts and Financial Context

A significant factor affecting Oatly's balance sheet is the conclusion of its co-packing agreement with Yeo Hiap Seng. Exiting this contract, established in 2019, requires Oatly to pay a termination fee of $32 million. The full settlement of this amount is due by January 2027. While production with this partner has ceased, Yeo Hiap Seng will continue to act as a distributor in Singapore and Malaysia.

The company's recent quarterly performance has presented a varied picture. A pivotal moment occurred in Q3 2025, when Oatly achieved a positive Adjusted EBITDA of $3.1 million, marking a crucial step toward operational profitability. However, the quarter still concluded with a net loss of $65.3 million. For context, the third quarter of 2023 showed a net profit of $44 million, but this was largely attributable to non-cash, mark-to-market gains on convertible notes rather than core operational performance.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Oatly?

Earlier in 2025, a positive trend emerged as Oatly's gross margin reached its highest level since its 2021 initial public offering. This improvement was driven by stringent cost discipline and workforce adjustments in its core European and North American markets.

Regional Performance and Market Expectations

The upcoming report will place particular emphasis on developments in two key regions: North America and Greater China. In China, the management team previously announced a comprehensive strategic review aimed at accelerating growth and enhancing shareholder value. Specific updates on this process, alongside broader commentary on the company's cost structure, are expected to be major drivers of the stock's near-term price movement.

The central question for investors remains: Can Oatly confirm the operational strength demonstrated in the previous quarter and meet market expectations? The February 11th release will provide the next critical data point in assessing the company's turnaround narrative.