Novo Nordisk Shares Stage a Notable Rebound Amid Key Approvals

Following a challenging period, Novo Nordisk's stock has demonstrated a significant upward move. This resurgence is primarily attributed to the U.S. regulatory clearance for an oral formulation of its weight-loss drug, Wegovy—a pivotal development within the fiercely competitive anti-obesity medication sector. The critical question for investors is whether this positive news cycle can translate into lasting relief for the share price.

A central catalyst for the recent share performance was the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granting approval for an oral version of Wegovy on December 23. This marks the first GLP-1 pill approved in the United States specifically for chronic weight management.

The tablet form is strategically important as it could broaden the drug's appeal to patients who prefer oral medications over injectable ones. Novo Nordisk's initial launch strategy focuses on U.S. out-of-pocket payment channels. This advancement also intensifies the company's rivalry with Eli Lilly, as both pharmaceutical giants vie for dominance in one of the industry's most lucrative therapeutic areas.

A Strong Week Against a Weak Backdrop

During the holiday-shortened trading week leading up to Thursday, Novo Nordisk's U.S.-listed shares advanced by 8.96%. This performance ranked the stock among the top five gainers covered by major analyst firms.

Despite this weekly gain, the shares continue to trade approximately 20% below the estimated fair value of $66 per share. The recent recovery contrasts sharply with the stock's broader performance trends for 2025:
* A decline of roughly 37–39% since the start of the year.
* A 12-month performance of approximately -38%.
* A three-month trajectory showing a loss of 10.52%.

These figures underscore that, despite the recent positive week, the stock remains well below its levels from prior months.

Pipeline Progress Provides Further Momentum

Beyond the oral Wegovy milestone, Novo Nordisk has reported several other significant developments, reinforcing its obesity treatment pipeline. Notably, the company submitted a U.S. FDA application for CagriSema on December 18.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Key recent developments include:
* FDA approval for the oral Wegovy variant (December 22-23).
* FDA submission for CagriSema (December 18).
* A recommendation from the European Medicines Agency for a higher Wegovy dose, associated with an average 20.7% weight reduction (December 12).
* Completion of the acquisition of Akero Therapeutics (December 9).
* An agreement with the U.S. government to expand access to GLP-1 therapies for more Americans at lower costs (November 6).

CagriSema represents the first once-weekly combination injectable featuring both GLP-1 and amylin analogues for weight management. The parallel advancement of multiple obesity projects highlights Novo Nordisk's commitment to defending its leadership in this segment.

Analyst Sentiment Remains Mixed

Despite the flow of positive news, market experts have recently tempered their earnings expectations. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimate for fiscal 2025 has been revised downward from $3.84 to $3.57 over the past 90 days.

For 2026, the forecast has been adjusted from $3.95 to $3.51, implying an expected earnings decline of 1.8% compared to 2025. Analyst price targets display a wide dispersion, ranging from $42 to $70, with an average fair value estimate around $52. Morningstar continues to assign Novo Nordisk a "Wide Moat" rating and four out of five stars, suggesting the valuation appears attractive relative to the company's fundamentals.

Navigating a Dynamic Competitive Landscape

The market for obesity medications continues to evolve rapidly. Beyond competition from large pharmaceutical peers, smaller biotech firms and alternative distribution platforms like Hims & Hers are entering the space, increasing competitive pressures. These so-called "diet-drug wars" have contributed to significant share price volatility across the sector in recent months.

Operationally, Novo Nordisk continues to demonstrate strength. The company's revenue has more than doubled over the past four years, rising from under $23 billion to nearly $48 billion. Profits increased by 125% over the same period, with trailing twelve-month EPS climbing from $1.65 to $3.82. On November 5, the firm exceeded earnings expectations, reporting a result that was 32% above consensus estimates—a sign of robust profitability despite the intense competitive environment.

Conclusion and Forward Look

The combination of the oral Wegovy FDA approval, the CagriSema application, the EMA recommendation, the Akero acquisition, and the U.S. government agreement has placed significant strategic accents on Novo Nordisk's obesity strategy late in 2025. In the near term, the market is likely to focus on the speed at which the oral Wegovy variant can scale in the U.S. and the progress of CagriSema through the regulatory process. Concurrently, the trajectory of earnings estimates will serve as a crucial indicator for determining whether the recent share price strength can mature into a sustained trend reversal.