Novo Nordisk Shares Face Steep Decline Amid Market Pressures

Once celebrated as Europe's most valuable company, Novo Nordisk has encountered a turbulent start to 2025. The Danish pharmaceutical giant is now grappling with a starkly different reality, defined by repeated forecast reductions and intense competitive pressure. As its share price continues to deteriorate, the central challenge for the company lies in rebuilding the investor confidence it has lost.

Market skepticism is rooted in concrete developments. Management has been forced to lower its revenue guidance multiple times this year—first in May, then again in July, and finally in the third quarter to a range of just 8% to 11% growth on a constant currency basis. The long-term outlook also presents concerns: the crucial U.S. patent for the active ingredient semaglutid is set to expire in 2032. Furthermore, the failed Evoke Phase 3 trial for an Alzheimer's treatment in November dealt an additional blow to market sentiment.

The stock's performance quantifies the crisis. Since the beginning of the year, the share price has collapsed by more than 52%. Currently trading around €40, it sits far below its 52-week high of over €102.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Fierce Competition Reshapes the Landscape

The market for weight-loss medications has become a fiercely contested battleground. While rival Eli Lilly has seen significant stock market gains, Novo Nordisk is falling behind. A particularly alarming shift for investors is the movement in market share: Eli Lilly's competing drug, Zepbound, has now surpassed Novo's Wegovy in terms of weekly new prescriptions in the U.S. This trend raises serious questions about whether Novo's current product pipeline is robust enough to support its former premium valuation.

Isolated Positives Fail to Reverse the Trend

Recent developments have included some positive news, such as the European Medicines Agency's recommendation for a higher Wegovy dosage and the completed acquisition of Akero Therapeutics. However, these announcements have done little to arrest the prevailing negative momentum. In response, equity analysts have issued a wave of downgrades, sharply reducing their price targets for the stock.

All eyes are now turning to 2026 for a potential inflection point. A head-to-head comparative study is scheduled for that year, pitting Novo's hoped-for successor, CagriSema, directly against Eli Lilly's Zepbound. The outcome of this direct clinical showdown is expected to be a major determinant of Novo Nordisk's ability to reclaim and maintain a competitive position in the crucial obesity drug market.