Novo Nordisk’s Path Forward: Can a New Drug Candidate Revive Its Prospects?

Novo Nordisk shares are navigating a challenging period, trading near multi-year lows following a significant decline. The stock has shed more than 52% of its value since the start of the year. Amid this persistent weakness, however, the company has initiated a key regulatory process that could signal a future turning point.

The sustained downward pressure on the share price is largely attributed to a rapidly evolving competitive landscape. Rival Eli Lilly has made substantial gains with its Tirzepatid-based therapies, Mounjaro and Zepbound. In the first three quarters of 2025, these GLP-1 drugs collectively generated $24.8 billion in revenue, accounting for over half of Eli Lilly's total sales.

This competitive shift has forced Novo Nordisk to revise its financial outlook downward. The company now anticipates annual growth of just 8% to 14%, a reduction from its previous forecast of 13% to 21%. A particularly notable adjustment was the cut in the Wegovy sales growth projection from 21% down to 14%. Adding a layer of uncertainty for investors is a recent leadership change, with Mike Doustdar taking over the CEO role from Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen.

CagriSema: A Potential Game-Changer in the Pipeline

In a strategic move to bolster its portfolio, Novo Nordisk has submitted CagriSema for approval with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). This next-generation weekly injection for obesity combines cagrilintide with semaglutid 2.4 mg, the active ingredient in its blockbuster drug, Wegovy. A regulatory decision is anticipated in 2026.

Clinical trial data from the REDEFINE program underscore its potential efficacy:
* Participants experienced an average weight reduction of 22.7% after 68 weeks (REDEFINE 1 trial).
* An impressive 91.9% of trial subjects achieved at least a 5% decrease in body weight.
* Approximately 54% of obese patients moved below the clinical obesity threshold (BMI under 30).

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Concurrently, the company has sought approval for a higher 7.2 mg dose of Wegovy, which has already received a positive recommendation from European regulators. Studies for this higher dose showed an average weight loss of 20.7%.

Analyst Sentiment and Valuation Context

Market experts remain largely cautious. The prevailing analyst consensus is a "Hold" rating, with an average price target of $53.33. Sentiment is mixed: while Berenberg Bank upgraded the stock to "Buy" in September, Kepler Cheuvreux lowered its target price from 510 to 430 Danish kroner. Weiss Ratings took a more bearish stance, downgrading the shares to "Sell."

The company's valuation reflects the current pessimism, trading at multi-year lows. With a forward P/E ratio hovering around 13 to 14, Novo Nordisk now sits notably below the industry average of approximately 20 and well under its own 10-year historical average.

From a technical perspective, the equity is currently priced at €41.08, hovering just above its 52-week low of €39.05. Both the 50-day moving average (€42.11) and the 200-day moving average (€52.01) reside above the current share price, indicating a sustained downward trend. The upcoming FDA decision on CagriSema next year represents a critical potential catalyst that will likely influence the stock's trajectory.