Novo Nordisk Faces Mounting Pressure as Rival Gains Ground

The launch of an oral weight-loss drug in the United States has provided a bright spot for Novo Nordisk, but this success is being tempered by a significant strategic challenge. The Danish pharmaceutical giant is confronting intensified competition from Eli Lilly, which is eroding its core business and prompting analysts to revise their financial outlooks downward.

Market analysts at TD Cowen have recently lowered their revenue and profit estimates for Novo Nordisk. This adjustment stems from an aggressive competitive landscape, where the firm is steadily ceding market share to its rival, Eli Lilly. The research suggests that Novo Nordisk's revenues could begin to contract from 2026 onward. Despite this more cautious forecast, TD Cowen maintains a buy recommendation on the company’s shares, pointing to several potential catalysts in the current year.

Oral Wegovy Launch Shows Early Promise

In a key development for its obesity portfolio, the oral version of Wegovy reached approximately 3,100 patients in its first week of US availability. This initial uptake generated short-term share price gains and supports the thesis that a pill format could help the company access new patient demographics. The broad US launch represents a critical move in the battle for the lucrative obesity treatment market.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Concurrently, Novo Nordisk has initiated a substantial marketing campaign for Ozempic, featuring actors Justin Long and John Hodgman. The campaign aims to directly educate patients on FDA-approved uses of the drug. This effort is a response to the proliferation of unapproved copycat products and increasing competition from other GLP-1-based therapies.

Strategic Pivot to Next-Generation Therapies

Looking beyond its current blockbuster drugs, Novo Nordisk is diversifying its pipeline through a deepened commitment to cell-based therapies. The company is expanding its strategic partnership with Aspect Biosystems, a move that involves relocating parts of its research and production to Canada. This investment signals a long-term strategic bet on pioneering cell-based diabetes treatments designed to target the root causes of the disease.

This collaboration underscores Novo Nordisk's ambition to retain a leadership position in the next generation of diabetes care. Whether this forward-looking strategy can offset the current market share losses to Eli Lilly will become clearer over the coming quarters.