Novo Nordisk Faces Dual Challenge in Crucial Indian Market

The Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk is navigating a complex strategic landscape in India. The company has initiated the launch of its blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic in the country today, aiming to establish a market presence. However, this move coincides with a significant legal setback that weakens its intellectual property position, setting the stage for intense generic competition.

In a pivotal decision, the Delhi High Court has rejected an injunction request from Novo Nordisk. The company had sought to prevent the Indian generic manufacturer Dr. Reddy's from producing semaglutid, the active ingredient in Ozempic. The court's ruling permits Dr. Reddy's to manufacture the compound immediately for export to nations where Novo Nordisk holds no patent protection.

The implications of this judgment are substantial:
* Dr. Reddy's is already scaling up its production capacity for semaglutid.
* Come March 12, 2026—the date the key patent expires in India—the company will be free to sell its version domestically.
* This precedent is likely to encourage other generic drugmakers to follow suit.

This legal development accelerates the approach of a "patent cliff" for Novo Nordisk in a critical growth market.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Strategic Launch Amidst Mounting Pressure

The timing of Ozempic's Indian introduction is highly strategic. With an estimated 100 million diabetics, India represents one of the world's largest healthcare markets. Novo Nordisk's launch strategy focuses on volume, pricing the introductory 0.25 mg dose at approximately 24 euros per week—a level significantly below Western market prices.

The company's calculus is clear: secure market share now, before inexpensive generic alternatives flood the market following the patent expiration in early 2026. However, the window for establishing brand loyalty is narrow.

Share Price Reflects Market Uncertainty

On the Copenhagen exchange, Novo Nordisk's share price remains stagnant, trading near 319 Danish kroner. The equity faces considerable technical resistance in the 321 to 325 kroner range. Market analysts express caution; a UBS researcher maintains a "Neutral" rating with a price target of 295 kroner. A failure to break above the current resistance zone could see the stock retreat toward its November lows around 266 kroner.

Balancing Growth with Profitability Pressures

A central challenge for Novo Nordisk is whether a volume-driven strategy in emerging markets can offset the anticipated revenue erosion from generic competition. While lower prices in countries like India boost accessibility and patient reach, they also result in substantially thinner profit margins compared to sales in the United States or Europe. The current stock performance appears to mirror this fundamental uncertainty. The post-March 2026 period will serve as a critical test, revealing the speed at which Novo Nordisk's market position may erode in the face of widespread generic availability.