Novavax Shares: A Survival Battle Amid Divergent Investor Views

The biotechnology firm Novavax continues to face severe headwinds, with expectations for a swift recovery fading rapidly. Company leadership has characterized 2025 as merely a "transitional year," but market performance tells a more alarming story—the stock has shed nearly two-thirds of its value over the past twelve months. This dramatic decline raises a critical question: is the vaccine specialist on the verge of collapse, or does this represent a rare investment opportunity?

Recent strategic announcements have directly contributed to the stock's current weakness. While management highlights a collaborative agreement with pharmaceutical giant Sanofi, potentially valued at up to $1.27 billion, the timeline presents a significant challenge. A full commercial rollout under this new model is not scheduled until 2026. This leaves Novavax navigating its ongoing operational expenses with a substantial gap before new revenue streams from this deal materialize.

Institutional Investors Clash on Outlook

Amid the sustained downturn, a fascinating divergence in investor sentiment has emerged. As the broader market engages in panic selling, investment fund TSP Capital is moving in the opposite direction, increasing its stake by 3.5 percent. This conflict creates a classic "battleground stock" scenario, where market participants hold fundamentally different theses. One camp focuses exclusively on the immediate financial losses, while the other is betting on the long-term potential of the company's development pipeline.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novavax?

Analyst Community Maintains Cautious Stance

Professional market observers remain largely unconvinced. The investment bank JP Morgan has reaffirmed its "underweight" rating on the stock, setting a price target of just $6.00. This projection implies a further significant drop from current trading levels. The analysts' position sends a clear message: they are not persuaded by the narrative of a potential recovery and anticipate additional negative pressure.

The pivotal factor for Novavax will be its ability to successfully execute the Sanofi partnership. However, navigating the period until that collaboration generates meaningful revenue will require considerable patience and resilience from its investors.