Newmont Shares Maintain Momentum Amid Gold’s Historic Rally

The unprecedented surge in gold prices continues to fuel the world's largest gold producer, Newmont. With the precious metal currently trading above $4,600 per ounce—a staggering 70% increase from the previous year—the company's fundamentals are exceptionally strong. Major investment banks project prices could reach $5,000 by 2026, setting the stage for Newmont to capitalize on high volumes and favorable pricing.

Newmont's consistent strategy of investing in top-tier mining assets is delivering significant results. The Ahafo North project in Ghana commenced commercial production in October 2025 and is now contributing approximately 300,000 ounces of gold annually. Operating at all-in sustaining costs between $800 and $900 per ounce, these operations are highly profitable against the current gold backdrop.

Financially, the company is in a formidable position. It concluded its divestment program in April 2025, generating roughly $3 billion in after-tax proceeds. This has helped reduce net debt to near-zero levels. Furthermore, Newmont generated a record $1.6 billion in operating cash flow in the third quarter of 2025, marking the fourth consecutive quarter exceeding $1 billion.

Multiple Catalysts Drive Gold Demand

Several interconnected factors are propelling gold to record highs. Central banks have been consistent net buyers for 14 consecutive months, building reserves. Simultaneously, geopolitical instability, from Venezuela to the Middle East, is driving investor uncertainty. Concerns regarding potential political influence on the U.S. Federal Reserve's independence have further bolstered the metal's appeal as a premier safe-haven asset.

This favorable environment is directly benefiting Newmont's valuation. The company now commands a market capitalization of approximately $125 billion, ranking it as the third-largest mining corporation globally.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Newmont Mining?

Operational Setback Proves Temporary

The company faced a short-term operational challenge in early January. Bushfires in Western Australia caused damage to infrastructure at the Boddington mine, forcing the processing plant to operate at 50-60% capacity. Full restoration is expected by February.

Key details of the incident include:
- An estimated 60,000 ounces of gold production will be lost in Q1 2026.
- Critical mining infrastructure remained intact, with only water supply systems affected.
- Mining and processing activities have already resumed.
- The company confirmed there will be no impact on its full-year 2025 guidance.

The fires, which were contained in late December, resulted in no serious injuries.

Upcoming Earnings in the Spotlight

Market attention is now turning to Newmont's financial report scheduled for February 19, 2026, which will cover both the fourth quarter and the full year 2025. Analysts anticipate earnings per share of around $1.80 for the final quarter. For the full year 2025, consensus estimates point to $6.32 per share, representing an increase of over 80% year-over-year.

This upcoming report will be the first to include a full quarter of contribution from the Ahafo North operation and will reflect the record-high gold prices seen in Q4. Management has previously indicated that special expenses related to the Yanacocha mine are likely to temporarily pressure free cash flow for the period.