Newmont Shares: Can a Major Bullish Forecast Unlock Further Gains?

The landscape for major gold producers is shifting, with Newmont Mining drawing significant market focus. A dramatically upgraded price target from UBS has captured attention, while sector dynamics, including potential restructuring at rival Barrick Gold, add to the narrative. Concurrently, institutional investors are making contrasting moves, creating a complex picture for market participants.

In a notable shift, UBS has raised its price target for Newmont to $125 per share, a substantial increase from its previous forecast of $105.50. This new target implies an upside potential of approximately 36% from current trading levels. The Swiss bank’s analysts cite a dual driver for their optimism: sustained strength in the gold price itself and operational efficiency gains realized following the integration of Newcrest Mining.

This confidence appears supported by recent financial performance. The company’s latest quarterly earnings per share came in at $1.71, significantly surpassing consensus estimates of $1.27. Furthermore, third-quarter revenue advanced by 20% year-over-year to reach $5.52 billion.

Operational developments also contribute to the positive outlook. The commissioning of the Ahafo North project in Ghana at the end of October is set to expand the company's production profile. Having solidified its position as the world's largest gold producer, Newmont is now seeing the market reassess its strategic direction.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Newmont Mining?

Divergent Moves Among Major Investors

Institutional investment activity surrounding Newmont reveals a split in sentiment. Legacy Capital Wealth Partners reduced its stake by more than 50%, a move interpreted as profit-taking following an impressive rally that has seen the stock advance over 140% since the start of the year. On the other side, West Family Investments established a new position valued at around $351,000.

These opposing strategies reflect typical portfolio management behavior, where some investors lock in gains while others establish or add to positions in anticipation of future growth. The sector backdrop provides additional context, with reports that Barrick Gold is considering a spin-off of its North American gold assets. Such potential restructuring often triggers widespread sector re-ratings, from which Newmont could benefit.

Leadership Transition and Technical Strength

Looking ahead, a scheduled leadership change is viewed as a potential catalyst. Natascha Viljoen is set to succeed Tom Palmer as CEO in January 2026. The market has responded favorably to this planned transition, anticipating a continued focus on cost discipline and sustainable production.

From a technical analysis perspective, the equity is showing strength, trading comfortably above its key moving averages and confirming a sustained upward trend. While Newmont’s ability to meet elevated expectations will be determined by its performance in coming quarters, the current set of fundamental and technical indicators appears favorable.