Nel ASA’s Pivotal Year: All Eyes on 2026 for a Turnaround

As 2025 draws to a close, shares of Norwegian hydrogen technology company Nel ASA are underperforming the broader market. Despite making significant strategic progress, particularly in expanding its electrolyzer manufacturing capacity, the stock's trajectory has remained weak. The critical test will arrive in 2026, when the company aims to successfully launch its next-generation technology and begin converting it into sustainable revenue streams.

Trading on the Oslo Stock Exchange, Nel's share price has recently fluctuated between NOK 2.23 and NOK 2.33. This represents an approximate 14% decline since the start of the year, a clear underperformance compared to the Norwegian benchmark index.

The stock closed at NOK 2.23 on December 29, marking a daily drop of 1.93%. On that day, Nel was among the weaker constituents of the OBX Index, which itself climbed 0.42% to a one-month high. A minor rebound of 0.95% to NOK 2.326 followed on December 30, but this did little to alter the overall negative trend. The current price sits well below its 52-week high of NOK 3.61, having touched a low of NOK 1.95 earlier in the year. This performance mirrors the persistent pressure on hydrogen-related equities throughout 2025.

Key Financial Metrics:

• 52-Week Range: NOK 1.95 – NOK 3.61
• Year-to-Date Performance: Approximately -14%
• Market Capitalization: NOK 4.1 billion
• Shares Outstanding: 1.84 billion

The Herøya Project: A Potential Game-Changer

A major corporate milestone was reached on December 12. Nel's board granted the final investment decision for industrializing its "Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline" platform at its Herøya facility in Norway. This move concludes a seven-year development program and initiates the shift to industrial-scale production.

The well-funded project has clear technical objectives:

• EU Innovation Fund Grant: Up to €135 million
• Initial Disbursement Received: Over €10 million
• Nel's Equity Investment: Roughly NOK 300 million (pre-funding)
• Planned Production Capacity: Up to 1 GW

Commercial launch is scheduled for the first half of 2026, with volume deliveries ramping up from 2027. CEO Håkon Volldal highlights two primary expected advantages of the new platform: leading system efficiency and significantly lower levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH).

Q3 2025 Results: A Mixed Financial Picture

The third-quarter 2025 financial report presented contrasting signals:

The notable reduction in EBITDA losses is attributed to ongoing cost-cutting initiatives. However, the near-halving of the order backlog presents a clear concern for the company's medium-term outlook.

Order Intake Shows Recent Momentum

Following a soft third quarter for new orders, Nel has secured several substantial contracts in recent months. Spanning both PEM and Alkaline technologies, these agreements could form the foundation for revenue stabilization if executed on schedule:

• November 2025: Technology provider agreement for the GreenH hydrogen projects in Kristiansund and Slagentangen.
• November 2025: PEM electrolyzer order for the HyFuel and Kaupanes projects, valued at over USD 50 million.
• October 2025: A third order for a containerized PEM solution from H2 Energy.

Strategic Anchor: The Samsung Partnership

A strategically crucial development is the cooperation with SAMSUNG Engineering & Construction. A comprehensive partnership agreed in March 2025 saw the South Korean industrial group invest NOK 353 million in a capital raise, becoming Nel's largest shareholder.

This partnership strengthens Nel's balance sheet and provides access to major international projects where a strong engineering partner is often a key requirement.

Divergent Analyst Views Point to a Crucial Juncture

Market experts display considerable divergence in their assessment of the equity. The average price target sits around NOK 2.28, closely aligning with the current trading level. The wide range of estimates, from NOK 1.20 to NOK 4.20, underscores the prevailing uncertainty regarding the hydrogen sector's development path.

Two pivotal factors for 2026 are coming into focus. First, the new alkaline platform at Herøya must achieve its planned commercial launch. Second, the existing project pipeline needs to be transformed into profitable revenue. Success on both fronts could reclassify the current weak share price levels as a transitional phase. Conversely, any delays or failure to achieve margins would likely prolong the pressure on the stock.