Nel ASA’s Pivotal Challenge: The 2026 Horizon

Trading near multi-year lows, shares of hydrogen technology company Nel ASA reflect a market in wait-and-see mode. Priced around NOK 2.26 and valued below its book value, the stock’s performance underscores deep-seated investor skepticism. All eyes are now fixed on whether a major technological shift, slated for 2026, can reverse the company's fortunes.

The most recent twelve-month figures paint a picture of a company in transition, grappling with significant operational challenges. Revenue stood at NOK 1.05 billion, overshadowed by a net loss of NOK 458.58 million. This resulted in a negative profit margin of 43.75% and a loss per share of NOK 0.26.

A key strength, however, is the balance sheet. As of the end of September 2025, Nel held approximately NOK 1.76 billion in cash. This substantial reserve provides a runway to execute its new strategy, though it continues to be eroded by quarterly losses.

The Crumbling Order Backlog

One of the most pressing immediate concerns is the state of the company's order book. The inflow of new orders has nearly halved within a year to NOK 984 million, severely reducing revenue visibility for the coming periods. This collapse has significantly damaged confidence among institutional investors.

The operational repercussions are already being felt across the business:
* Workforce Reduction: Approximately 20% of employees were let go in early 2025.
* Production Pause: Parts of the electrolyzer production at the Herøya facility were temporarily suspended.
* Asset Retrieval: The company has recalled equipment from projects where customers fell behind on payments.

The market's doubt is quantified by a price-to-book ratio of 0.87, indicating the company is valued below its stated net asset value.

The "Next Generation" Bet

Management is staking the company's future on its "Next-Generation Pressurized Alkaline" platform. In December 2025, the board greenlit the industrialization of this technology at Herøya, a move bolstered by commitments of up to €135 million from the EU Innovation Fund.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

The ambitious project outlines several key milestones:
* Investment: Roughly NOK 300 million for an initial capacity of 1 GW.
* Market Launch: Targeted for the first half of 2026.
* Industrial-Scale Deliveries: Expected to commence from 2027.
* Objective: A significant reduction in hydrogen production costs through modular, containerized solutions.

While the announcement provided a brief lift to the share price, it failed to catalyze a sustained shift in market sentiment. Investors appear to be waiting for concrete execution progress.

Analyst Sentiment: Predominantly Cautious

The analyst community remains largely cautious, with a consensus leaning toward "Sell" or "Underweight" ratings.
* Average Price Target: NOK 2.22, which is close to the current trading level.
* Range of Estimates: NOK 1.20 to NOK 4.20, highlighting significant uncertainty.

Individual firm views vary. Citi maintains a "Neutral" stance with a NOK 2.70 target, while Kepler Cheuvreux recommends "Reduce" with a NOK 1.90 target. This wide dispersion underscores the debate over management's ability to successfully navigate this technological pivot.

February 26th: A Key Date for Clarity

The upcoming release of fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 26, 2026, represents the next major catalyst for the stock. Market participants will scrutinize several critical areas:
* Tangible progress on industrializing the new platform.
* Any stabilization or improvement in the order backlog.
* The trajectory of the cash burn rate.
* Confirmation of the timeline for the commercial market launch.

Having declined 93% from its 2021 peak and underperforming the OBX Total Return Index by approximately 17 percentage points over the past year, 2026 is shaping up to be a decisive period for Nel ASA. The coming quarters must demonstrate whether the company can translate its technological overhaul into firm orders and a more stable earnings foundation.