Nasdaq 100 Stages Bullish Rebound as Rate Cut Hopes Resurface

The technology-heavy index mounted an impressive recovery at the start of the week, with pre-market trading seeing crucial resistance levels breached. Following a period of significant volatility, investors are returning to the market, fueled by renewed expectations for a December interest rate reduction. The critical question remains whether this signals a genuine trend reversal or if institutional players are merely using the improved liquidity to exit positions.

From a technical perspective, conditions have notably improved, though underlying risks persist. The index is currently challenging the psychologically significant 24,500-point threshold. A sustained breakthrough above this level would potentially open a path toward the 50-day exponential moving average at 24,892 points.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has emerged from oversold territory but retains room for advancement before reaching overbought conditions. However, the daily chart continues to suggest a "sell the rally" approach remains prudent until the moving average is decisively overcome. Immediate support holds at 24,000 points—a level successfully defended during Friday's session. Should this support fail, a test of the 23,900 zone becomes likely. Market participants are now closely monitoring the Chicago Fed National Activity Index; if the recovery maintains momentum through the trading day, bearish pressure may temporarily subside.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying NASDAQ 100?

Dual Catalysts: Fed Commentary and Currency Dynamics

Pre-market futures advanced by more than 200 points, reclaiming the 24,500 level. The sentiment shift primarily stemmed from Friday's comments by Federal Reserve President John Williams. His suggestions that labor market risks might necessitate earlier monetary policy adjustments caused probability metrics for a December rate cut to surge to approximately 70%.

Simultaneously, currency markets are providing additional tailwinds for equity bulls. The Japanese yen continues to weaken, approaching the 157.00 level against the US dollar. This development revitalizes carry trade activity—particularly crucial for US technology shares—resulting in noticeable capital inflows. Trading volume exceeds typical Monday morning averages while the VIX volatility index retreats, indicating investors are navigating market conditions with renewed confidence.

Mixed Performance Among Index Heavyweights

While the broader market shows relief, individual components reveal significant divergences. Pre-market movements present a varied picture across major constituents:

• Alphabet: Building upon Friday's substantial 3.5% rally. Sustained optimism surrounding the Gemini 3 AI model continues to provide strong catalytic support.
• Nvidia: Demonstrating resilience with modest gains. Reports concerning potential new export licenses for China generate positive speculation, given the Asian market's critical revenue contribution.
• Tesla: Experiencing profit-taking pressure. Shares dipped approximately 1% in pre-market trading to $391.09, following a recent strong performance streak.