MP Materials Shares Surge on Record Output and Strategic Partnerships

The equity of MP Materials, America's sole fully integrated rare earth elements producer, has experienced a powerful upward trajectory following its third-quarter earnings release on November 6. This rally was ignited by record production figures and a landmark strategic agreement, capturing significant attention on Wall Street.

A central driver of the market's enthusiasm is a substantial 51% increase in neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) output, which reached 721 tons. Perhaps even more significant for long-term stability is the company's strategic partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). This collaboration provides a multi-year framework with guaranteed minimum pricing, substantially de-risking the company's future revenue stream.

Analyst Upgrades Fuel Optimism

Market experts have responded with a wave of positive revisions. JPMorgan Chase led the charge on November 14, elevating its rating to "Overweight" and establishing a price target of $74 per share. Analyst Bill Peterson highlighted the "unparalleled earnings visibility" afforded by the DoD agreement.

This move was preceded by Deutsche Bank, which upgraded its stance to "Buy" on November 10 with a $71 price target. The current analyst consensus averages $80.35, indicating substantial upside potential from the recent price of $58.64. The bullish sentiment is anchored by several key factors:

• A 10-year price guarantee of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products from the DoD.
• A committed $400 million equity investment from the Department of Defense.
• A 100% offtake guarantee for the magnets produced at the planned "10X" facility.
• A $1 billion financing commitment from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs.

Q3 Financials Present a Mixed Picture

Despite the operational achievements, the quarterly financial results revealed a more complex situation. Consolidated revenue declined by 15% year-over-year to $53.6 million, primarily due to a strategic decision to halt rare earth concentrate sales to China. Consequently, the net loss widened to $41.78 million.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying MP Materials?

However, a bright spot emerged from the company's new Magnetics division, which contributed $21.9 million in revenue and $9.5 million in EBITDA. Company leadership has projected a return to profitability by the fourth quarter of 2025.

Building a Dominant Position in a Critical Sector

MP Materials holds a foundational position in the North American supply chain. Its Mountain Pass facility in California is the largest rare earths mine in the Western Hemisphere. The company's expansion strategy includes a second magnet production plant, expected to boost U.S. manufacturing capacity to an estimated 10,000 tons by 2028.

Further enhancing its growth profile is a $500 million partnership with Apple focused on sourcing recycled rare earth magnets, alongside plans to commence production of heavy rare earth elements by mid-2026.

From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has found support around $46.50, with resistance noted near the $60 level. Bolstered by the DoD partnership as a core pillar, MP Materials appears strategically positioned for sustained growth, even as it navigates short-term execution risks.