MicroStrategy Faces Potential Index Removal Amid Bitcoin Strategy Shift

The investment landscape for MicroStrategy has grown increasingly precarious. While its shares have already suffered significant declines since their October peak, a new threat has emerged from an unexpected quarter. Index provider MSCI is now considering whether to remove the company from several major benchmark indices, a move that could trigger substantial forced selling. In response, Chairman Michael Saylor is adopting a confrontational stance with the index giant while simultaneously abandoning a long-held corporate principle to safeguard the company's financial position.

All eyes are now fixed on January 15, 2026, the date MSCI has set to announce its final verdict. Market analysts view this as a binary event with significant consequences. Should MicroStrategy retain its place, experts suggest it could catalyze a recovery for both the company's stock and Bitcoin. Conversely, an exclusion would likely accelerate selling pressure on digital assets substantially. JPMorgan estimates that ejection from the MSCI USA Index alone could precipitate capital outflows of up to $2.8 billion, as funds tied to the index would be compelled to unwind their positions.

Clash with an Index Provider

Tensions escalated on December 10, 2025, when MicroStrategy's leadership dispatched a strongly worded letter to MSCI. The dispute centers on MSCI's review of whether companies with balance sheets comprising more than 50% digital assets should remain listed in traditional equity indices. For MicroStrategy, which holds Bitcoin valued at approximately $60 billion, such a ruling would be severely damaging.

In their communication, Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le labeled the proposed exclusion as "discriminatory and arbitrary." They argue that MicroStrategy is an operational business, not an investment fund. The executives draw a parallel to oil or gold companies, which also concentrate their holdings in single asset classes without facing removal from major indices.

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A Departure from "HODL" Doctrine

To fortify itself against mounting pressure, management has established a $1.44 billion "liquidity buffer." These reserves are intended to cover interest payments and dividends for the next 21 months. However, the most startling development involves the firm's core Bitcoin holdings.

Michael Saylor, who once championed holding Bitcoin "until death," has notably softened his stance. He conceded that sales could be possible under specific conditions, namely if the company's net asset value (mNAV) falls below a factor of 1.0. This retreat from a strict "HODL" dogma unsettled investors, contributing to sharp volatility. The stock, currently trading around €154, hovers just above its 52-week low.

Wall Street Turns Cautious

Despite these defensive maneuvers, the company continues its acquisition strategy, having recently purchased an additional 10,624 Bitcoin for nearly $1 billion. Wall Street, however, remains skeptical. Prominent firms including Bernstein, TD Cowen, and Cantor Fitzgerald have downgraded their price targets, citing the looming risk of an MSCI exclusion as a primary concern.