Metaplanet Shares Take a Breather Following Rally

Shares of Metaplanet experienced notable selling pressure in Tokyo trading today, marking a pause in their strong year-to-date performance. The stock declined to 541 yen, representing a drop of approximately 8.5% from Friday's closing price of 591 yen. This pullback is attributed to profit-taking activity following a recent surge and the company's continued close correlation with Bitcoin's price movements.

The equity had advanced by more than 50% at points during January. A significant catalyst for this earlier strength was an index provider's decision. MSCI opted not to remove digital treasury companies, including Metaplanet, from its global indices. This move alleviated a major overhang for Bitcoin-focused stocks.

Key factors behind the recent price action include:

• Index Inclusion Relief: The early January announcement from MSCI regarding index membership fueled a robust recovery in Metaplanet and comparable assets.
• Share Buyback Program: Between October 28 and December 31, 2025, the company repurchased 26,311 of its own shares for a total of 1.14 billion yen.
• Premium to Assets: The market value to net asset value (mNAV) ratio climbed to 1.36, its highest level since October. This indicates the stock is trading at a noticeable premium to the underlying value of its Bitcoin holdings.
• Warrant Threshold Nears: The share price recently approached the 637 yen level, which would reactivate a variable warrant program.

Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Underpins Valuation

Holding 35,102 BTC, Metaplanet ranks among the world's largest publicly traded corporate holders of Bitcoin and is the foremost in Asia. This strategic position, built through an aggressive accumulation strategy, forms the core of its investment narrative.

Market participants are closely monitoring the variable warrant program, structured through the 23rd and 24th series of share subscription rights issued to the EVO Fund in December 2025. This mechanism could lead to the creation of up to 210 million new shares.
* The 23rd series has a lower exercise boundary of 637 yen.
* The 24th series is triggered at a minimum threshold of 777 yen.

Consequently, potential shareholder dilution is closely tied to the future trajectory of the share price.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Metaplanet?

Trading Activity Remains Elevated

Despite the price decline, trading volume stayed high. Over 31 million shares changed hands today, only slightly below the average daily volume of approximately 33 million. This suggests sustained interest in the Bitcoin treasury story, even as short-term traders lock in gains.

Technical Picture Cools

From a chart perspective, conditions have noticeably cooled. After reaching levels above 630 yen last week, the stock has surrendered a significant portion of its January advances. In the broader context, a substantial gap remains to the 52-week high of 1,930 yen recorded in June 2025; the current price sits roughly 72% below that peak.

Metaplanet's current market capitalization stands at approximately 630 billion yen. Based on earnings from the past twelve months, the price-to-earnings ratio is about 16.8.

Upcoming Catalysts and Financial Reporting

The next major scheduled event is the quarterly report due on February 10, 2026. This release will provide detailed insights into earnings generated from the Bitcoin treasury and the Web3 consulting activities, which have recently attracted additional investor attention.

According to consensus estimates, the average analyst price target sits at 1,927.50 yen, significantly above the current trading level. This discrepancy highlights the wide valuation range possible for Bitcoin treasury companies within the current environment of high volatility.