Metaplanet Shares Retreat After Failing to Hold Key Bitcoin Funding Level

Metaplanet's stock closed lower on Friday, unable to sustain a breakout above a price threshold critical to funding its Bitcoin acquisition strategy. A brief surge past the level triggered profit-taking, leaving investors to watch whether the equity can regain momentum in the coming sessions.

Despite ending the week on a softer note, Metaplanet shares posted a weekly advance of nearly 12%. The stock has rallied approximately 90% from its December lows. Year-to-date performance remains robust, with gains of about 51%, significantly outpacing the Nikkei 225 index's 7.5% rise over the same period.

The recent valuation recovery provides fundamental support for potential capital raising. The company's market value relative to its Bitcoin holdings—measured by the mNAV ratio—has climbed to 1.36, its highest point since October 2025. Because the stock trades at a premium to the intrinsic value of its cryptocurrency assets, management views issuing new shares as accretive for existing shareholders.

The Pivotal Price Mechanism

The focus for traders is the 637 yen level. This price represents the exercise price for the 23rd series of share purchase warrants held by the EVO Fund. A sustained close above this threshold allows the fund to subscribe for up to 105 million new shares. The primary use of proceeds from such an issuance would be further Bitcoin purchases. An additional tranche, Series 24, would become active at 777 yen.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Metaplanet?

Metaplanet currently holds 35,102 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $3.3 billion, cementing its status as Asia's largest publicly traded corporate holder of the cryptocurrency.

Trading Activity and Near-Term Outlook

On Thursday, January 15, trading volume spiked to 46.3 million shares. The price briefly touched a peak of 639 yen, crossing the crucial 637 yen mark, but the breakout proved short-lived. The following session saw a correction of 3.59%, with shares closing at 591 yen. Volume receded noticeably to 27.5 million shares as the price moved in a narrower range between 581 and 602 yen.

Alongside its warrant program, the company continues to operate a share buyback program for up to 150 million shares, which is backed by a Bitcoin-collateralized credit line.

The next significant event for investors is the fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for February 17, 2026. In the immediate term, the stock needs to advance roughly 7.8% from current levels to reactivate the 637 yen trigger, which would pave the way for an accelerated expansion of its Bitcoin portfolio.