Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Bet Backfires as Holdings Slump into Deep Loss

The aggressive digital asset strategy pursued by Japanese investment firm Metaplanet is facing a severe test. As the company's cryptocurrency reserves climb to a record size, expensive purchases made in the final quarter of 2025 are now weighing heavily on its balance sheet and share price. The growing gap between acquisition cost and current market value has unsettled investors.

Metaplanet’s equity fell nearly 8% in today's session to trade at 405 Japanese Yen. This decline extends a dramatic sell-off, with the stock now down approximately 80% from its mid-year peak. The immediate catalyst was a mandatory filing released on Tuesday, which revealed the steep prices the company recently paid to accumulate Bitcoin.

During Q4 2025, Metaplanet purchased an additional 4,279 Bitcoin for roughly $451 million. This equates to an average price of $105,412 per coin. With Bitcoin currently trading around $87,400, this entire tranche is now held at a significant unrealized loss. The market is punishing this discrepancy, as the premium the shares once commanded over the company's net asset value (NAV) has virtually evaporated.

Half a Billion Dollar Paper Loss

Although the firm's total holdings have expanded to 35,102 BTC, the picture is clouded by deep losses on paper. Metaplanet’s total investment now stands at $3.78 billion, reflecting an average entry price of $107,606 per Bitcoin.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Metaplanet?

Key Financial Metrics:

• Total Bitcoin Holdings: 35,102 BTC
• Average Cost Basis: $107,606 per Bitcoin
• Unrealized Loss: Exceeds $500 million at current market prices
• Silver Lining: The "BTC Yield," a metric tracking Bitcoin growth per share, registered at 11.9% for the quarter.

Valuation Craters to Near Asset Value

Market analysts are focused on the firm's market value to net asset (mNAV) ratio. Historically, Metaplanet shares traded at a premium to the underlying value of its Bitcoin treasury. That premium has now collapsed to a factor of just 1.02. In practical terms, this means the market is valuing the company almost solely on the liquidation value of its assets, assigning minimal worth to its ongoing business operations.

Further pressure stems from investor concerns about share dilution. The recent Bitcoin acquisitions were partly financed through the issuance of "MERCURY" Class B preferred shares. While management contends that the rising BTC Yield still enhances value per share, market skepticism is currently prevailing.

Despite the steep downturn, CEO Simon Gerovich remains committed to an ambitious target of holding 210,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2027. However, with a $500 million credit line announced in October now largely utilized, investor attention is shifting to the company's next steps in debt management and financing.