Metaplanet’s Aggressive Bitcoin Strategy Faces Market Skepticism

Despite concluding 2025 with a massive expansion of its Bitcoin treasury, Metaplanet's shares continue to trade under significant pressure. The Tokyo-based company is solidifying its position as a major publicly-listed Bitcoin holding vehicle, yet investor sentiment remains subdued even as its Bitcoin-derived income business outperforms expectations.

The market's reaction to Metaplanet's latest moves has been decidedly negative. Shares listed in Tokyo closed at 405 Yen on December 30, marking a daily decline of 7.95%. This price places the stock approximately 80% below its all-time high reached in June 2025, reflecting broader valuation pressures on Bitcoin treasury equities globally.

The key valuation metric, the Multiple to Net Asset Value (mNAV), which compares market capitalization to the underlying Bitcoin holdings, dropped from 1.17 to 1.03 following the company's announcement. This indicates the stock is now valued at only a slight premium above its pure Bitcoin asset value. Notably, this ratio had briefly fallen below 1.0 in October 2025, implying the shares were trading at a discount to the net value of the Bitcoin on the balance sheet.

US-traded securities also weakened:
* The OTC-listed share (MTPLF) closed 4.26% lower at $2.70.
* The recently launched ADR (MPJPY) fell 4.20% to $2.74.

Quarterly Purchase Significantly Boosts Treasury

In the final quarter of 2025, Metaplanet executed a substantial purchase of 4,279 Bitcoin for approximately $451 million. According to the December 30 announcement, the average purchase price was $105,412 per BTC.

This acquisition brings the company's total holdings to 35,102 BTC, cementing its status as the world's fourth-largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin. The cumulative expenditure for building this position stands at $3.78 billion, resulting in an average cost basis of $107,606 per Bitcoin.

CEO Simon Gerovich highlighted a BTC Yield of 568.2% for 2025. This metric tracks the change in the ratio of total Bitcoin holdings to fully diluted outstanding shares and serves as an efficiency indicator for the treasury strategy.

The latest purchase was funded through a combination of debt and equity:
* Bitcoin-collateralized loan facilities totaling $280 million, drawn from a $500 million facility.
* An issuance of 23,610,000 Class B preferred shares, which raised 21.25 billion Yen (roughly $135 million) from foreign institutional investors.

Bitcoin Income Generation Exceeds Forecasts

A standout aspect of the recent update is the performance of Metaplanet's Bitcoin Income Generation business, which has significantly surpassed initial projections. The company now anticipates operational revenue of 8.58 billion Yen (about $54 million) from this segment for the 2025 fiscal year.

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This revised forecast is substantially higher than the original guidance of 3.0 billion Yen and also exceeds the upwardly revised expectation of 6.3 billion Yen issued in October. This business utilizes option strategies on a separate Bitcoin pool to generate recurring income from collected premiums, without impacting the core long-term treasury holdings.

The segment's momentum is clear in quarterly comparisons:
* Q4 2024 revenue: 691.6 million Yen
* Q4 2025 revenue: 4.24 billion Yen
This represents a cumulative quarterly growth rate of approximately 57%.

Financing, Debt Management, and Capital Structure

On December 29, 2025, Metaplanet fully redeemed its 19th series of Ordinary Bonds, servicing the remaining 3.75 billion Yen as planned. The company's existing Bitcoin reserves serve as collateral for outstanding loans, with management emphasizing that current holdings provide substantial over-collateralization relative to the debt size.

During an extraordinary general meeting, the board approved several share-related resolutions that effectively double the maximum number of issuable Class A and Class B shares. The objective is to create financial flexibility for potential future Bitcoin acquisitions without immediately causing significant dilution for existing shareholders.

Challenging Market Context and Unrealized Losses

The company's announcement comes during a period of intensified valuation pressure on Bitcoin treasury stocks. Bitcoin itself was trading below $87,500 on December 30, having retreated from a record high of $126,080 reached in October 2025.

At current prices, the 4,279 BTC purchased in Q4 are worth approximately $374 million, representing an unrealized loss of about 17% on their acquisition cost. On its total Bitcoin position, the company holds an aggregate unrealized loss exceeding $520 million based on prevailing market prices.

Management continues to frame Bitcoin explicitly as a long-term treasury asset rather than a short-term trading position. The company's target is to hold 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027, implying a significant further expansion of its reserves.

Forward Look and Key Dates

Metaplanet is currently assessing how the substantially stronger results from its Bitcoin Income Generation business will impact its consolidated earnings forecast. An updated guidance is expected to be published once this evaluation is complete.

The company plans to release its next quarterly figures on February 17, 2026. Investors will likely focus on three key areas: the further evolution of the Bitcoin treasury, the profitability of the income generation segment, and the relationship between the share price and the value of the held Bitcoin.